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Key rate, average for the year, % per annum Forecast from CBR 2025

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on 25/07/2025
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Index description

Bank of Russia’s medium-term forecast following the Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting on 24 October 2025. Key forecast parameters of the Bank of Russia’s baseline scenario. Given that from January 1st to October 26th 2025 the key rate averaged 19.8%, from October 27th to the end of 2025 the average key rate forecast range is 16.4–16.5%.

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Subgroup indices

Index Current value Date
Current account Goods Imports Forecast from CBR 2025 298 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Current account Services Imports Forecast from CBR 2025 92 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Brent oil price, average for the year Forecast from CBR 2024 80 USD/BBL 25/10/2024
Brent oil price, average for the year Forecast from CBR 2025 80 USD/BBL 25/10/2024
Brent oil price, average for the year Forecast from CBR 2026 75 USD/BBL 25/10/2024
Brent oil price, average for the year Forecast from CBR 2027 70 USD/BBL 25/10/2024
Change in reserve assets Forecast from CBR 2024 -14 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Change in reserve assets Forecast from CBR 2025 -24 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Claims on households in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 13.5 % 25/10/2024
Claims on households in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 2.5 % 24/10/2025
Claims on households, including mortgage loans in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 9.5 % 25/10/2024
Claims on households, including mortgage loans in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 4.5 % 24/10/2025
Claims on organisations and households in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 16.5 % 25/10/2024
Claims on organisations and households in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 9.5 % 24/10/2025
Claims on organisations in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 18.5 % 25/10/2024
Claims on organisations in rubles and foreign currency growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 11.5 % 24/10/2025
Current account Forecast from CBR 2024 61 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current account Forecast from CBR 2025 38 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Current account Goods Exports Forecast from CBR 2024 422 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current account Goods Exports Forecast from CBR 2025 414 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Current account Goods Forecast from CBR 2024 133 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current account Goods Forecast from CBR 2025 116 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Current account Goods Imports Forecast from CBR 2024 289 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current account Primary and secondary income balance Forecast from CBR 2024 -34 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current account Primary and secondary income balance Forecast from CBR 2025 -32 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Current account Services Exports Forecast from CBR 2024 42 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current account Services Exports Forecast from CBR 2025 47 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Current account Services Forecast from CBR 2024 -38 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current account Services Forecast from CBR 2025 -45 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Current account Services Imports Forecast from CBR 2024 80 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current and capital accounts balance Forecast from CBR 2024 61 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Current and capital accounts balance Forecast from CBR 2025 38 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Exports growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 -1 % 25/10/2024
Exports growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 -2 % 24/10/2025
Final consumption expenditure householdsgrowth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 5 % 25/10/2024
Final consumption expenditure householdsgrowth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 1.5 % 24/10/2025
Final consumption expendituregrowth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 4 % 25/10/2024
Final consumption expendituregrowth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 1.5 % 24/10/2025
Financial account balance, excluding reserve assets Forecast from CBR 2024 78 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Financial account balance, excluding reserve assets Forecast from CBR 2025 51 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Financial account balance, excluding reserve assets Net acquisition of financial assets, excluding reserve assets Forecast from CBR 2024 58 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Financial account balance, excluding reserve assets Net acquisition of financial assets, excluding reserve assets Forecast from CBR 2025 52 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Financial account balance, excluding reserve assets Net incurrence of liabilities Forecast from CBR 2024 -20 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Financial account balance, excluding reserve assets Net incurrence of liabilities Forecast from CBR 2025 1 USD Billion 24/10/2025
GDP % change Q4 – Q4 previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 2.5 % 25/10/2024
GDP % change Q4 – Q4 previous year previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 0 % 24/10/2025
GDP growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 3.75 % 25/10/2024
GDP growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 0.75 % 24/10/2025
Gross capital formation growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 4.5 % 25/10/2024
Gross capital formation growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 0 % 24/10/2025
Gross s fixed capital formation growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 7 % 25/10/2024
Gross s fixed capital formation growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 2 % 24/10/2025
Imports growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 -2 % 25/10/2024
Imports growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 -1 % 24/10/2025
Inflation, as % in December year-on-year Forecast from CBR 2024 8.25 % 25/10/2024
Inflation, as % in December year-on-year Forecast from CBR 2025 6.75 % 24/10/2025
Inflation, average for the year, as % year-on-year Forecast from CBR 2024 8.3 % 25/10/2024
Inflation, average for the year, as % year-on-year Forecast from CBR 2025 8.85 % 24/10/2025
Key rate, average for the year, % per annum Forecast from CBR 2024 17.5 % 25/10/2024
Key rate, average for the year, % per annum Forecast from CBR 2025 19.2 % 24/10/2025
Money supply in national definition growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2024 18.5 % 25/10/2024
Money supply in national definition growth as % of previous year Forecast from CBR 2025 8.5 % 24/10/2025
Net errors and omissions Forecast from CBR 2024 4 USD Billion 25/10/2024
Net errors and omissions Forecast from CBR 2025 -11 USD Billion 24/10/2025
Oil price for tax purposes Forecast from CBR 2025 58 USD/BBL 24/10/2025
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2022 (max) 10.6 % 28/10/2022
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2022 (min) 10.6 % 28/10/2022
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2023 (max) 15.2 % 27/10/2023
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2023 (min) 15 % 27/10/2023
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2024 (max) 17.5 % 25/10/2024
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2024 (min) 17.5 % 25/10/2024
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2025 (max) 19.2 % 24/10/2025
Russia Key rate of CBR Forecast from CBR 2025 (min) 19.2 % 24/10/2025
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