Central Bank to take a break: The market does not expect a change in the key rate – Cbonds consensus forecast

Today, on October 26th, the seventh meeting of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy of this year will be held, at which a decision will be made concerning the amount of the key rate. In September, the Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 25 basic points – up to 7.5% per annum. In the press release associated with the September decision, the Central Bank clarified that it would assess the feasibility of further raising the rate based on the dynamics of inflation and the economy as a whole. On monthly results, the annual inflation rate was 3.4%, which is in line with the forecasts of the regulator and does not require the tightening of monetary policy. The factors raising the key rate were also risks from external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them. In the October bulletin of the Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia, the mega-regulator indicates the stabilization of the situation on the financial market: “September decisions to raise the key rate by 25 basic points and the suspension of foreign currency purchases on the domestic market served as a positive signal providing stabilizing support to the financial market. ” Taking into account the current level of inflation and a decrease in instability on the market, most analysts expect the key rate to remain at the level of 7.5%. However, political factors and signals of the banking market may become prerequisites for further changes in the indicator.

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