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Zloty weaker and may fall further, T-bond market nervous ahead of macro data

January 11, 2013
Poland's zloty lost ground to the euro, failing to keep pace with a EUR/USD surge and tinged by notable losses for the Hungarian forint, and could head towards EUR/PLN 4.12-13 if conditions hold. locals told PAP of trade going into the weekend. 

Polish Treasuries, likewise suffered, posting yield gains on the long end in what locals called volatile trade ahead of key data expected after the weekend.

"The zloty weakened against the euro on Friday as a result of the euro appreciation against all currencies and, in addition, a strong depreciation of the HUF," Bank BPH FX dealer Andrzej Krzeminski told PAP.

If the trend continues into early next week, the EUR/PLN could hit the 4.12-4.13 neighborhood seen before the Polish MPC's rate decision and rhetoric rejig Wednesday, he said.

Polish Treasuries proved jumpy with losses on the long-end Friday, while macro data to be published next week is looked to to support the short-end, PKO BP bond trader Maciej Popiel told PAP.

"Next week, macro data should support the short end of the curve," he said.

Stats office GUS will publish December inflation data on Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by PAP expect CPI to reach 2.5% y/y, down from 2.8% in November.