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Moody's has assigned definitive ratings to notes issued by Closed Joint Stock Company "Mortgage Agent Europe 2012-1",

December 28, 2012 Moody's Investors Service
Approximately RUB 2,354.893 million of Debt Securities affected

London, 28 December 2012 -- Moody's has assigned definitive ratings to notes issued by Closed Joint Stock Company "Mortgage Agent Europe 2012-1", Russian RMBS:

RUB 2,354.893M A Notes, Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf) RUB 703.410M Class B Notes were not rated by Moody's.

RATINGS RATIONALE

This transaction is the first securitisation of mortgages originated by Credit Europe Bank Ltd. (Ba3). The portfolio consists of the Russian residential mortgage loans serviced by Credit Europe Bank. DeltaCredit Bank (Baa3/P-3) will be acting as back-up servicer in the transaction.

Moody's assigned provisional ratings to these notes on 18 December 2012. The rating takes into account the credit quality of the underlying mortgage loan pool, from which Moody's determined the MILAN Credit Enhancement and the portfolio expected loss, as well as the transaction structure and legal considerations. The expected portfolio loss of 7.5% and the MILAN required credit enhancement of 23% serve as input parameters for Moody's cash flow model and tranching model, which is based on a probabilistic lognormal distribution as described in the report "The Lognormal Method Applied to ABS Analysis", published in July 2000.

The most significant driver for the MILAN Credit Enhancement number, which is similar to other MILAN CE numbers in the Russian RMBS transactions was the limited amount of historical information available from the originator and the fact that for about 32% of the borrowers income was verified using forms provided by the bank rather than official tax forms. The main driver for the expected loss, which is also in line with expected losses assumed for other Russian RMBS transactions, was the limited historical data available on the originator's portfolio. The weighted average current loan-to-value (LTV) of 56.5% based on minimum of the estimated purchase price and valuation is slightly lower than the LTV observed in other Russian RMBS transactions.

The transaction benefits from an amortising reserve fund fully funded at closing at 5% of the initial Class A note balance. The reserve fund is replenished before the interest payment on the unrated Class B notes. Subject to conditions such as no draw on the reserve fund, no unpaid principal deficiency on Class A, and no servicer default, the reserve fund may amortise at 5% of the outstanding Class A note balance down to a floor of 1% of initial Class A note balance.

The transaction also benefits from a non-amortising commingling reserve fund, which is equal to 1% of initial Class A note balance and can be used to compensate the issuer for any losses resulting from the failure of the servicer to transfer the amounts collected from the borrowers.

Ratings address the expected loss posed to investors by the legal final maturity of the notes. Moody's ratings only address the credit risk associated with the transaction. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on yield to investors.

The V Score for this transaction is High, which is in line with the score assigned for the Russian RMBS sector. The High V-Score reflects uncertainty associated with legal and regulatory environment in the sector, limited experience of the originator in the securitisation market, and limited performance data available for the book of the originator. V-Scores are a relative assessment of the quality of available credit information and of the degree of dependence on various assumptions used in determining the rating. High variability in key assumptions could expose a rating to more likelihood of rating changes. The V-Score has been assigned accordingly to the report "V-Scores and Parameter Sensitivities in the Major EMEA RMBS Sectors" published in April 2009.

Moody's Parameter Sensitivities: Even if the portfolio expected loss was increased from 7.5% to 15% and MILAN Credit Enhancement was increased from 23% to 36.8%, the model output indicates that the Class A notes would have achieved Baa3.

Moody's Parameter Sensitivities provide a quantitative/model-indicated calculation of the number of rating notches that a Moody's structured finance security may vary if certain input parameters used in the initial rating process differed. The analysis assumes that the deal has not aged and is not intended to measure how the rating of the security might migrate over time, but rather how the initial rating of the security might have differed if key rating input parameters were varied. Parameter Sensitivities for the typical EMEA RMBS transaction are calculated by stressing key variable inputs in Moody's primary rating model.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Other Factors used in this rating are described in Key Legal and Structural Rating Issues in Russian Securitisation Transactions published in June 2007.

In rating this transaction, Moody's used a cash flow model to model the cash flows and determine the loss for each tranche. The cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of the lognormal distribution assumed for the portfolio default rate. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss or EL for each tranche is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow model in each default scenario for each tranche. Moody's also considered scenarios where the Mortgage Agent has defaulted as a result of nonpayment of senior fees or interest on the notes, asset-liability mismatch, or insufficient mortgage coverage. In this case, Moody's assumed that the liquidation of assets occurred and the notes were repaid according to the post-enforcement waterfall using the proceeds of the asset liquidation assuming a recovery rate of 50%.

As such, Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.
  • Status
    early redeemed
  • Country of risk
    Russia
  • Redemption (put/call option)
    *** (***)
  • Amount
    2,354,893,000 RUB
  • М/S&P/F
    — / — / —
  • Full name
    ZAO Mortgage Agent Europe 2012-1
  • Registration country
    Russia
  • Industry
    Government Agencies