VTB: Russia Early Indicators - October
November 9, 2012
Early October indicators have drawn a mixed picture for the economy. On the one side, PMI indices improved substantially in October (thus giving some expectation that the economic performance will improve) but the first hard data (gas production, cargo turnover) was not so impressive. We keep our negative stance towards growth in Russia given the ongoing slowdown in lending activity, turnaround in the household savings ratio trend and negative fiscal impact on the economy (especially in 4Q12). The lower than expected October inflation reading could also be a sign of weakness in the economy.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova, Dmitri Fedotkin, Mykyta Mykhaylychenko
VTB Capital analysts