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Nordea: weaker Swedish sentiment in most business sectors

September 26, 2012
The NIER’s business tendency survey shows that the situation in the manufacturing industry deteriorated further in September, as widely expected. Confidence in the total business sector remained stable. Although it is below its historical average, confidence in the total business sector is somewhat more resilient than forecast. Confidence was down in all sectors apart for the retail sector. Important is that employment and employment plans edged down further, adding to evidence that the labour market will deteriorate going forward.

All in all, although some parts of the domestic economy show resilience, the tendency survey indicates sluggish GDP growth, which in turn will reduce the demand for labour. Low inflation and rising unemployment will put pressure on the Riksbank to cut rates further. We expect the Riksbank to cut rates in December and then to stay on hold at 1.0%. However, the Riksbank might very well cut rates more than that.