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Ukrainian Eurobonds: Positive improvement on global news

September 18, 2012

Taras Kotovych / Andriy Kyrushko, Fixed-income analyst, Investment Capital Ukraine:

Last week, positive developments in the global markets continued to improve prices of
Ukrainian Eurobonds, with YTMs and spreads falling significantly to the lowest levels seen this year. YTMs of Eurobonds fell below 8.0% for the first time this year and spreads tightened to under 700bp following the 5-year CDS (see charts below), with the greatest decline seen upon the Fed‟s announcement of the QE3 programme.
Last Friday, the 5-year CDS declined to 647bp and YTMs declined to the range 5.50-7.50%, except for the UKRAIN 9.25% '17 YTM of which rose last Friday to 8.77%. These conditions are far better than when Ukraine issued its last public Eurobond in July 9.25% when the 5-year Eurobond UKRAIN 6.75% '17 was quoted slightly below 9.0%. If the MoF were to place this offering now, it could do so at a coupon rate at least 100bp lower.