Global Week Ahead

The most important events this week will be the FOMC meeting (announcement Wednesday), even though we do not expect anything new this time, and the Troika review of Greece (not scheduled but supposedly soon), even though the “final” decision on Greece and maybe also on Spain will be taken at the Eurogroup meeting 12 November.

We still see a moderate positive bias to the key figure surprises, especially from US Q3 GDP numbers and Euro-area PMI, while UK Q3 numbers could be a slightly negative surprise. That should pave the way for another week with a moderately optimistic risk sentiment.

• The main US key figure is the first estimate of Q3 GDP. In addition, durable goods orders and jobless claims will be in the spotlight. Generally we expect positive surprises compared to consensus forecasts.

• In the Euro area, PMI numbers and the German Ifo is expected to show modest improvements on average, but with some variation among countries and sectors.

• UK GDP is likely to surprise on the downside, but the likelihood of QE in November has dropped closer to 50/50.

• Chinese PMI is expected to show a modest improvement.

In Scandinavia: The most important event will be the Riksbank meeting. We expect the Riksbank to stay on hold but lower the rate path paving the way for the rate cut that we anticipate will come in December.