External trade data for 1Q12; banks\' liquidity declines; UAH real value up

Economics: External trade data for 1Q12: slowdown confirmed
Yesterday, the State Statistics Committee\'s 1Q12 foreign trade data reported a slowing trend in trade growth since the beginning of the year, confirming the NBU\'s previously published data on the external balance. On a 12-month rolling basis, the export growth rate slowed to 5.52% YoY, down from 14.21% a month earlier. At the same time, import growth stood at 2.49% YoY versus 10.71% YoY as seen in February. Our preferred gauge of underlying demand conditions in the economy-a 12-month rolling trade balance that excludes the minerals trade sector-amounted to US$5.1bn in March, 6.3% below the previous month\'s US$5.5bn, due primarily to the recovery in demand for imported cars, which, being a part of the engineering group of external trade, slightly bolstered imports versus exports. The trade deficit in engineering goods amounted to US$8.1bn on a last 12-month (LTM) basis, up from US$7.7bn of the previous month. Although the trade deficit in mineral products on a LTM basis began to contract in March, it amounted to US$18.9bn, down from US$19.5bn in February. LTM steel exports rose 13.5% YoY, versus 19.3% YoY last month. Surpluses in the steel trade and in the agri and food sector were at US$16.0bn and US$7.1bn, respectively.

Attached please find the complete report, which includes supporting charts and tables for all comments (PDF file: 11 pages, 1155KB)