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Cbonds Global Inflation Outlook - January 2026

25/02/2026 | Cbonds Research
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Executive Summary

The global inflation landscape in January 2026 was characterized by significant divergence among the world's largest economies, breaking the synchronized trends seen in previous quarters. The United States demonstrated continued disinflationary momentum, reporting a headline rate of 2.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the prior month. In contrast, price pressures in key European markets were mixed; while France saw inflation suppress rapidly to 0.3%, Germany recorded an uptick to 2.1%, driven by a 0.3 percentage point increase. Emerging markets displayed volatility, most notably in India, where inflation surged by 1.42 percentage points to reach 2.75%. Meanwhile, China skirted the edge of deflation with a printed rate of 0.2%, and Brazil maintained a hawkish stance with a real interest rate of 10.56% to anchor inflation at 4.44%.

Top 10 Largest Economies – Inflation Data

Country Inflation (%) CB Rate (%) Real Rate (%) 10Y Yields (%) Change vs. prev. month (pp)
United States 2.4 3.75 1.35 4.08 -0.3
China 0.2 3.0 2.8 1.81 -0.6
Japan 1.5 0.75 -0.75 2.14 -0.6
Germany 2.1 2.15 0.05 2.74 0.3
India 2.75 5.25 2.5 6.67 1.42
United Kingdom 3.0 3.75 0.75 4.37 -0.4
France 0.3 2.15 1.85 3.32 -0.5
Brazil 4.44 15.0 10.56 13.54 0.18
Italy 1.0 2.15 1.15 3.37 -0.2
Canada 2.3 2.25 -0.05 3.47 -0.1

Real Rate is counted as difference between the respective central bank rate and inflation

Africa Inflation Landscape

Outlook Summary

Africa's inflation environment in January 2026 reflected a sharp bifurcation between economies achieving stabilization and those managing volatility. Zimbabwe posted a remarkable adjustment, with inflation settling at 4.1% following a substantial 10.9 percentage point monthly decline, signaling a normalization of price dynamics. Nigeria continued its gradual path toward stability, recording a rate of 15.1% with a high real interest rate of 11.9%. Conversely, inflationary pressures persisted in Rwanda, which saw a 2.3 percentage point rise to 7.5%. Deflationary trends were absent in the major reporting nations for January, though Senegal and the Ivory Coast reported near-flat price growth at 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, reflecting subdued demand pressures in West Africa.

Country Inflation Data

Country Inflation Rate (%) Date of Value Change vs. prev. month (pp) Real Rate
Zimbabwe 4.1 Jan 2026 -10.9 30.9
Senegal 0.4 Jan 2026 -2.4 -
Cape Verde 1.4 Jan 2026 -1.9 1.1
Zambia 9.4 Jan 2026 -1.8 4.1
Ghana 3.8 Jan 2026 -1.6 11.7
Angola 14.56 Jan 2026 -1.14 2.94
Malawi 24.9 Jan 2026 -1.1 1.1
Benin 0.9 Jan 2026 -0.5 -
Egypt 11.9 Jan 2026 -0.4 7.1
Namibia 2.9 Jan 2026 -0.3 3.6
Tanzania 3.3 Jan 2026 -0.3 2.45
Mozambique 3.04 Jan 2026 -0.19 6.21
Tunisia 4.8 Jan 2026 -0.1 2.2
South Africa 3.5 Jan 2026 -0.1 3.25
Kenya 4.4 Jan 2026 -0.1 4.35
Nigeria 15.1 Jan 2026 -0.05 11.9
Togo 0.0 Jan 2026 0.0 -
Uganda 3.2 Jan 2026 0.1 6.55
Ethiopia 9.8 Jan 2026 0.1 5.2
Botswana 4.1 Jan 2026 0.2 -0.6
Ivory Coast 0.3 Jan 2026 0.2 -
Mauritania 4.4 Jan 2026 0.3 1.6
Seychelles 0.1 Jan 2026 0.32 1.65
Rwanda 7.5 Jan 2026 2.3 -0.25
Burundi 15.2 Dec 2025 -7.9 -3.2
Guinea-Bissau -2.8 Dec 2025 -1.0 -
Cameroon 2.5 Dec 2025 -0.8 -
Gambia 6.6 Dec 2025 -0.27 9.4
Sierra Leone 4.35 Dec 2025 -0.22 12.4
Lesotho 4.1 Dec 2025 -0.2 2.4
Burkina Faso -2.2 Dec 2025 -0.2 -
Mali 0.4 Dec 2025 -0.2 -
Eswatini 2.3 Dec 2025 -0.1 4.45
Morocco -0.3 Dec 2025 0.0 2.55
Libya 2.8 Dec 2025 0.2 0.2
Republic of Guinea 3.4 Nov 2025 -0.4 6.35
Democratic Republic of Congo 2.11 Nov 2025 -0.37 12.89
Madagascar 7.2 Nov 2025 -0.3 4.8
Chad -4.3 Nov 2025 -0.2 -
Algeria 1.5 Nov 2025 1.9 1.25
Gabon 2.1 Sep 2025 -0.1 -
Central African Republic 0.4 Jul 2025 -0.8 4.35
Equatorial Guinea 4.0 Dec 2024 - -
South Sudan 112.6 Oct 2024 4.7 -99.6
Sudan 63.3 Feb 2023 -20.3 -35.0


Africa Annual Inflation Rate Change to Previous Month (%). Source: Cbonds

Asia Inflation Landscape

Outlook Summary

The Asian inflation outlook for January 2026 was dominated by extreme disparities in monetary conditions and localized economic shocks. China continued to face disinflationary headwinds, with the consumer price index slowing to 0.2% following a 0.6 percentage point decline. Japan similarly saw inflation cool to 1.5%, moving its real interest rate further into negative territory at -0.75%. A significant divergence was observed in India, where inflation accelerated sharply to 2.75%, moving away from the lower levels of the previous month. In the Middle East, geopolitical and economic factors drove volatility; Palestine recorded a deflationary recovery to -14.4%—a massive statistical shift of 28.5 percentage points from previous lows—while Turkey’s inflation remained elevated at 30.65%, despite a marginal monthly reduction.

Country Inflation Data

Country Inflation Rate (%) Date of Value Change vs. prev. month (pp) Real Rate
Republic of Fiji -2.5 Jan 2026 -2.5 2.75
Vietnam 2.53 Jan 2026 -0.95 1.97
Israel 1.8 Jan 2026 -0.8 2.2
Taiwan 0.69 Jan 2026 -0.61 1.31
China 0.2 Jan 2026 -0.6 0.15
Japan 1.5 Jan 2026 -0.6 -0.75
Laos 5.1 Jan 2026 -0.5 3.4
Thailand -0.66 Jan 2026 -0.38 1.91
Saudi Arabia 1.8 Jan 2026 -0.3 2.45
South Korea 2.0 Jan 2026 -0.3 0.5
Jordan 1.06 Jan 2026 -0.25 4.69
Turkey 30.65 Jan 2026 -0.24 6.35
Oman 1.4 Jan 2026 -0.2 2.85
Malaysia 1.6 Jan 2026 0.0 1.15
Mongolia 7.5 Jan 2026 0.0 4.5
Cambodia 1.26 Jan 2026 0.07 -0.82
Bangladesh 8.58 Jan 2026 0.09 1.42
Sri Lanka 2.3 Jan 2026 0.2 5.45
Philippines 2.0 Jan 2026 0.2 2.25
Pakistan 5.8 Jan 2026 0.2 4.7
Qatar 2.28 Jan 2026 0.33 2.07
Indonesia 3.55 Jan 2026 0.63 1.2
Nepal 2.42 Jan 2026 0.79 3.33
India 2.75 Jan 2026 1.42 2.5
Palestine -14.4 Jan 2026 28.5 -
Lebanon 12.2 Dec 2025 -2.5 7.8
Maldives 0.4 Dec 2025 -1.0 6.6
Bahrain 0.5 Dec 2025 -0.6 4.0
Kuwait 2.07 Dec 2025 -0.31 1.43
Iraq -1.2 Dec 2025 -0.2 6.7
Bhutan 3.37 Dec 2025 -0.18 2.74
Macau 0.69 Dec 2025 -0.03 3.31
Singapore 1.2 Dec 2025 0.0 -
Hong Kong 1.4 Dec 2025 0.2 2.6
Afghanistan 5.7 Dec 2025 1.2 -
Syria 11.35 Nov 2025 -0.47 -
United Arab Emirates 2.17 Oct 2025 0.91 1.48
Iran 48.6 Oct 2025 3.3 -25.6
Myanmar 28.58 Jun 2023 - -19.58


Asia Annual Inflation Rate Change to Previous Month (%). Source: Cbonds

North America Inflation Landscape

Outlook Summary

North America began 2026 with inflation largely contained and trending downward across developed markets. The United States and Canada showed high convergence, with the US at 2.4% and Canada at 2.3%, reflecting effective monetary transmission across the region. Mexico diverged slightly from its northern neighbors, recording a 0.1 percentage point increase to reach 3.79%, supported by a positive real rate of 3.21%. In Central America and the Caribbean, economic disparity was evident. Costa Rica faced significant deflationary pressure at -2.54%, while Cuba remained an inflationary outlier at 12.52%, despite a 1.55 percentage point monthly cooling. Panama maintained near-price stability with an inflation rate of just 0.2%.

Country Inflation Data

Country Inflation Rate (%) Date of Value Change vs. prev. month (pp) Real Rate
Cuba 12.52 Jan 2026 -1.55 -10.27
Costa Rica -2.54 Jan 2026 -1.55 5.79
Honduras 4.23 Jan 2026 -0.75 1.52
Guatemala 0.96 Jan 2026 -0.69 2.79
Jamaica 3.9 Jan 2026 -0.6 1.85
United States 2.4 Jan 2026 -0.3 1.35
El Salvador 0.65 Jan 2026 -0.26 3.97
Canada 2.3 Jan 2026 -0.1 -0.05
Dominican Republic 4.98 Jan 2026 0.03 0.27
Panama 0.2 Jan 2026 0.1 -
Mexico 3.79 Jan 2026 0.1 3.21
Nicaragua 3.03 Jan 2026 0.33 2.72
Haiti 25.0 Dec 2025 -3.3 -8.0
Belize 0.3 Dec 2025 -0.1 1.95
Trinidad and Tobago 0.4 Dec 2025 -0.1 3.1
Aruba 0.4 Dec 2025 0.6 -
Puerto Rico 2.0 Nov 2025 0.0 -
Barbados 1.7 Nov 2025 0.3 0.3
Bahamas 1.2 Jul 2025 0.7 2.8


North America Annual Inflation Rate Change to Previous Month (%). Source: Cbonds

South America Inflation Landscape

Outlook Summary

South America's inflation outlook for January 2026 was defined by the persistence of structural inflation in specific nations contrasted against stabilization elsewhere. Argentina continued to face intensifying price pressures, with inflation rising by 0.9 percentage points to 32.4%, resulting in a negative real rate of -3.4%. Bolivia also remained a concern with high inflation at 19.64%, although it achieved a monthly reduction of 0.76 percentage points. Brazil maintained its rigorous monetary approach, with inflation at 4.44% effectively checked by a double-digit real interest rate. Meanwhile, the Pacific economies showed varied results; Chile saw distinct cooling to 2.8%, while Colombia recorded a slight increase to 5.35%.

Country Inflation Data

Country Inflation Rate (%) Date of Value Change vs. prev. month (pp) Real Rate
Bolivia 19.64 Jan 2026 -0.76 -14.37
Chile 2.8 Jan 2026 -0.7 1.7
Paraguay 2.7 Jan 2026 -0.4 3.05
Uruguay 3.46 Jan 2026 -0.19 3.04
Brazil 4.44 Jan 2026 0.18 10.56
Peru 1.7 Jan 2026 0.19 2.55
Colombia 5.35 Jan 2026 0.25 4.9
Ecuador 2.44 Jan 2026 0.53 5.3
Argentina 32.4 Jan 2026 0.9 -3.4
Guyana 2.5 Dec 2025 -0.7 2.5
Suriname 11.4 Dec 2025 -0.2 -1.4
Venezuela 172.0 Apr 2025 36.0 -113.32


South America Annual Inflation Rate Change to Previous Month (%). Source: Cbonds

Europe Inflation Landscape

Outlook Summary

Europe closed January 2026 with a pronounced trend of disinflation in peripheral economies, while core economies showed mixed signals. Austria recorded a dramatic correction, with inflation falling 1.8 percentage points to 2.0%. France and the Netherlands also posted declines, settling at 0.3% and 2.4% respectively. However, the region's largest economy, Germany, defied the broader trend with a 0.3 percentage point rise to 2.1%. Eastern Europe continued to battle higher structural prices, with Romania at 9.6% and Ukraine at 7.4%, though both showed signs of cooling compared to the previous month. Deflationary risks appeared in Finland, which reported a rate of -0.2%, contrasting with the stickier price growth in the United Kingdom at 3.0%.

Country Inflation Data

Country Inflation Rate (%) Date of Value Change vs. prev. month (pp) Real Rate
Austria 2.0 Jan 2026 -1.8 0.15
Luxembourg 1.27 Jan 2026 -1.79 0.88
Bulgaria 3.5 Jan 2026 -1.5 -1.69
Hungary 2.1 Jan 2026 -1.2 4.4
Denmark 0.8 Jan 2026 -1.1 0.8
Belgium 1.1 Jan 2026 -0.96 1.05
North Macedonia 3.2 Jan 2026 -0.9 0.8
Latvia 2.9 Jan 2026 -0.6 -0.75
Spain 2.3 Jan 2026 -0.6 -0.15
Ukraine 7.4 Jan 2026 -0.6 7.6
Czech Republic 1.6 Jan 2026 -0.5 1.9
France 0.3 Jan 2026 -0.5 1.85
Netherlands 2.4 Jan 2026 -0.5 -0.25
Finland -0.2 Jan 2026 -0.4 2.35
United Kingdom 3.0 Jan 2026 -0.4 0.75
Estonia 3.7 Jan 2026 -0.4 -1.55
Portugal 1.9 Jan 2026 -0.3 0.25
Serbia 2.4 Jan 2026 -0.3 3.35
Lithuania 3.1 Jan 2026 -0.3 -0.95
Italy 1.0 Jan 2026 -0.2 1.15
Poland 2.2 Jan 2026 -0.2 1.8
Greece 2.5 Jan 2026 -0.1 -0.35
Slovenia 2.6 Jan 2026 -0.1 -0.45
Ireland 2.7 Jan 2026 -0.1 -0.55
Romania 9.6 Jan 2026 -0.1 -3.1
Albania 2.3 Jan 2026 0.0 0.2
Liechtenstein 0.1 Jan 2026 0.0 -
Switzerland 0.1 Jan 2026 0.0 -0.1
Sweden 0.4 Jan 2026 0.1 1.35
Croatia 3.4 Jan 2026 0.1 -1.25
Slovakia 4.0 Jan 2026 0.2 -1.85
Germany 2.1 Jan 2026 0.3 0.05
Norway 3.6 Jan 2026 0.4 0.4
Kosovo 5.8 Jan 2026 0.5 -
Iceland 5.2 Jan 2026 0.7 2.05
Cyprus 0.5 Jan 2026 1.0 1.65
Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.1 Dec 2025 -0.3 0.26
Montenegro 4.0 Dec 2025 -0.2 -
Malta 2.4 Dec 2025 -0.1 -0.25


Europe Annual Inflation Rate Change to Previous Month (%). Source: Cbonds

CIS Inflation Landscape

Outlook Summary

The CIS region demonstrated a complex inflationary environment in January 2026, driven by divergent monetary policies and local economic conditions. Russia reported an inflation rate of 6.0%, marking a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, despite maintaining a high real interest rate of 9.5%. Kazakhstan remained the region's primary inflationary challenge at 12.2%, showing stability with a marginal 0.1 percentage point decline. A significant stabilization occurred in Moldova, where inflation dropped by 2.0 percentage points to 4.8%. Meanwhile, Georgia and Armenia experienced upward pressure, with rates rising to 4.8% and 3.8% respectively, highlighting the uneven impact of regional economic integration.

Country Inflation Data

Country Inflation Rate (%) Date of Value Change vs. prev. month (pp) Real Rate
Moldova 4.8 Jan 2026 -2.0 0.2
Belarus 6.4 Jan 2026 -0.4 3.35
Kazakhstan 12.2 Jan 2026 -0.1 5.8
Kyrgyzstan 9.5 Jan 2026 0.1 1.5
Russia 6.0 Jan 2026 0.4 9.5
Armenia 3.8 Jan 2026 0.5 2.7
Azerbaijan 5.7 Jan 2026 0.5 0.8
Georgia 4.8 Jan 2026 0.8 3.2
Uzbekistan 7.3 Dec 2025 -0.2 6.7
Tajikistan 3.5 Dec 2025 0.3 3.5


CIS Annual Inflation Rate Change to Previous Month (%). Source: Cbonds

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