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FX, bonds and rates weekly

01/04/2024 | Gazprombank
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* The ruble appreciated by 0.3% against the dollar last week and by 0.6% versus the yuan, contrary to expectations of more significant strengthening on the back of tax payments. We expect support for the ruble to weaken this week, with the exchange rate retreating to the USD/RUB 93 mark. * The CBR's "fine tuning" deposit auction and tax payments to the budget pushed money market rates upward. * Global markets lacked an active dynamic. The UST10’s yield was little changed, while the yield on 10Y German Bunds fell by 3 bps and that on UK Gilts was nearly unchanged. * The OFZ market also lacked direction. Yields at the short end and in the belly of the curve decreased by up to 10 bps, while those on long-dated papers advanced by 3-6 bps. * The Minfin revealed its borrowing plan for 2Q24. The planned volume of placements was increased from RUB 0.8 trln in 1Q24 to RUB 1 trln, in line with our forecasts. * Consumer inflation rose to 0.11% WoW over the March 19-25 period from 0.06% a week earlier.

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