Daily Insight-In the spotlight: GDP up 5.7% YoY in October, Prominvestbank, Metinvest, mining sector news

Ukraine\'s GDP rose 5.7% YoY in October, and 4.6% in 10M10, the country\'s prime minister, Mykola Azarov, announced at the Cabinet of Ministers\' meeting yesterday, adding that the government has coped well with maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, which was also noted by the IMF, and that the economy of Ukraine is recovering. Ukraine also showed good industrial dynamics in October, with industrial output growing 10.2% YoY in October alone and 10.7% in 10M10. The cumulative industrial growth rate has remained at approximately the same level in the past three months, even though it dropped slightly from the spring\'s even stronger dynamics, when 12.6% growth of output was recorded in 4M10 and 5M10. The industry accelerated on a monthly basis in October, after showing growth of 4.8% over September. Breaking this down by sector, machine building grew 32% YoY in October (including cars by 91.5%, trucks by 101.6%, and buses by 41.4%); chemicals production 27.5%; and light industry 9.3%. Compared with these ancillary industries, October\'s 8.9% YoY growth in metallurgy, Ukraine\'s largest industry, appears rather modest. It is worthwhile noting that retail trade turnover was up 11.8% YoY in October and 5.9% in 10M10, prompted by the increase in people\'s living standards (the official level of minimum salary grew 21.9% from the start of the year, while consumer prices rose only 7.9%). The National Bank of Ukraine recently upgraded its forecast of Ukraine\'s economic growth to 4.1-4.3% in 2010 and 4% in 2011, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts Ukraine\'s economy to grow 5% in 2010. The government\'s official forecast is for 3.7% in 2010 and 4.5% in 2011, the latter of which corresponds with the IMF\'s own forecast for 2011.