CBR meeting: First minutes

The CBR's decision to keep the key rate at its current level of 16% at the February meeting was based on a slowing of inflation and lending, growth in savings, and the expected transition of the banking sector to a deficit of structural liquidity. While the regulator's signal leaves room for a reduction of the key rate, it also suggests that such a move may take place only amid declining price pressure and inflation expectations. 
We believe that a significant reduction of the key rate can hardly be expected before 2H24, although a cosmetic cut of no more than 100 bps may take place as soon as June.