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FX, bonds and rates weekly

25/09/2023 | Gazprombank
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* The ruble strengthened by 0.6% against the dollar last week to USD/RUB 96.25 and by 0.7% against the yuan to CNY/RUB 13.16 amid continued large-scale FX sales by the CBR and preparations for tax payments due on September 28. We believe that the ruble could test the USD/RUB 95 mark at the beginning of the week. * The Fed expectedly kept the federal funds rate unchanged but signaled that the tightening cycle may not be over, which exerted upward pressure on UST yields. European markets lacked a uniform dynamic. * The OFZ market lacked clear direction, with yields declining in the belly of the curve, while a negative price trend predominated at the short and long ends. We expect the draft of the updated federal budget to continue to exert pressure on the far end of the curve. * Consumer inflation in Russia amounted to 0.13% WoW over the September 12-18 period, unchanged from the previous week.

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