Kazakhstan: Smooth growth story

We regard Kazakhstan as an interesting growth story. The peak of inflation has passed and the NBK is maintaining macroeconomic stability. We expect CPI to decelerate to 12.2% YoY by year end and to 8.3% YoY by end 2024. We also maintain a positive outlook on the country’s economic growth, which we forecast at 4.6% in 2023, close to the mid-point of the NBK's upgraded forecast range of 4.2-5.2%. In 2024, growth will normalize at around 4%. In addition, we see prospects for upgrades of Kazakhstan's sovereign rating in the medium term.