Economic Spotlight 30/06/2023

* The ruble continued its weakening trend yesterday, falling to USD/RUB 87.57 (-1.4%) and CNY/RUB 12.06 (-1.3%). 
* FX volumes markedly increased (+23% to RUB 372 bln), with turnover in the dollar growing by 36% to RUB 145 bln, in the euro by 7% to RUB 66 bln and in the yuan by 19% to RUB 159 bln. 
* The ruble continues to weaken this morning, crossing the USD/RUB 88 threshold amid the absence of support from tax payments and persisting demand for FX. Additional pressure today may come from the end-2Q23/1H23 effect (namely revaluation, settlements and other factors) as well as corporate events, in particular Magnit\\\'s announcement of an increase of its non-resident buyback limit. 
* Azerbaijan\\\'s budget runs a significant surplus in 5M23. According to the Finance Ministry of Azerbaijan, the government budget ran a surplus of AZN 2.8 bln in 5M23. Azerbaijan\\\'s budget surplus in 5M23 increased by 1.4x YoY and totaled 5.6% of GDP. Alongside an increase in spending, which usually peaks in the fourth quarter of the year, the budget balance will normalize by year end. According to our estimates, if the oil price remains close to the current level until year end, Azerbaijan’s budget may be executed with a deficit of no more than 0.5% of GDP. Positive for eurobonds.