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CBR meeting review: Ahead of market expectations
At today’s scheduled meeting, the CBR reduced the key rate by 150 bps to 8.0%. The opportunity of a key rate cut emerged from deflationary shocks. Repetition of the wide step seen in June was made possible by an easing of inflationary risks. The CBR improved its macroeconomic forecast, bringing it close to our optimistic scenario. We believe that this was not the last reduction this year and expect the key rate to be lowered to 7% by year end.