Uzbekistan: We expect the rate to remain at 14% and a neutral tone in the press release

We expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (CBRU) on Thursday, September 9, to keep the base rate at 14% and continue to focus on maintaining price stability. The main arguments in favor of such a decision remain unchanged from the July meeting and include the following: 1) faster than expected recovery of economic activity; 2) ongoing high rates of price growth in the food segment, leading to 3) heightened inflationary expectations; and 4) inflationary pressure from Uzbekistan’s key trade partner countries. At the same time, in the absence of an upward inflationary trend, we expect maintenance of a neutral tone in the CBRU’s press release.