GlobalTrans 1H21 IFRS: difficult six months with emerging price recovery; OVERWEIGHT maintained

Globaltrans’ 1H21 IFRS results revealed negative dynamics in revenues adjusted for pass-through items (-14% YoY) and EBITDA (-29% YoY), mainly due to pressure on gondola service prices during the period and, to a lesser extent, volume underperformance vs. the market. The company announced the interim 2021 dividend at ~RUB 22.5/GDR (RUB 4 bln in total with an implied DY of~3.7%) and indicated the intention to pay a final 2021 dividend of RUB ~28.0/GDR (~RUB 5 bln in total with an implied DY of ~4.2%) in April-May 2022. Although gondola service prices were depressed over the period, company and market data indicate gradual recovery. In light of this and the company’s prudent approach to opex and capex, we update our forecast and raise our target price to $9.5/GDR (RUB 700/GDR). We maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation despite the stock’s solid total return (TR) of more than 40% (incl. dividends) since our TP update of September 14, 2020. We still expect the company to generate double-digit FCFY and DY in the medium term.