Tajikistan: We expect S&P to confirm rating at the B- level with a Stable outlook

During its planned review on August 20, we expect S&P to confirm the sovereign rating of Tajikistan at the B- level with a Stable outlook. S&P will base its decision on the following factors: 1) ongoing positive rates of economic growth that significantly exceed the agency’s forecasts; 2) last year’s smaller than expected budget deficit and its stabilization in 2021; 3) the absence of pressure on the current account despite the pandemic; 4) controlled growth in the debt burden in line with the approved borrowing program; and 5) the absence of plans to attract external borrowing on commercial terms and the priority to utilize preferential loans.