FX, bonds and rates weekly

The ruble strengthened by 0.6% against the dollar last week to USD/RUB 74.1. The trend was mixed among EM currencies. Moderately negative sentiment prevailed on global markets last week amid concerns about acceleration of inflation and prospects for economic growth due to COVID contagion. The UST10’s yield rose following the release of higher than expected inflation data in the US, but by week end had fallen to 1.29%. The trend was mixed on local 10Y EM bond markets. The dynamic was negative on the OFZ market in anticipation of the CBR’s key rate decision. In our opinion, the CBR will raise the key rate by 100 bps. On the money market, we expect the RUONIA rate to fluctuate in a range of 5.60-5.80% in anticipation of the CBR rate meeting.