CEE Weekly Bond Markets Outlook

Inside the CEE Weekly Bond Market issue:

In Poland we changed our recommendation for the bond market to sell. The best news should be priced into the market after the rate cut of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week. EUR/PLN could be more stable than the bond market, because risk aversion is still low.


The Hungary even though S&P downgraded its outlook a week ago the HUF nevertheless returned to old levels around 251 against the EUR. The question will now be when Moody’s will react as they still have their “stable” outlook and are likely to follow S&P and Fitch.


After reaching new all-time strong levels last week the Czech crown has corrected some of its most recent gains after the Czech National Bank’s warning at its monetary policy board meeting last Thursday (with two members voting for a rate cut even). The foreign trade deficit for December (CZK 3.91 bn), which was released earlier today, was somewhat better than the market had expected.


After establishing new all-time strong levels close to 37.20 last week the Slovakcrown moved away from its highs in line with the CZK. The board of the National Bank of Slovakia voted 5:2 in favor of a rate hike, but was still one vote short of a sufficient majority as three out of the ten members were not present.