Financial and Economic Bulletin

Spain
Although the employment barely increased in November (+1,619 members vs +5,232 in Nov-14), is the best second detail in the above-mentioned month of the latest eight years; also, the seasonally adjusted rise (+59,624) is the most intense one from April. Similarly, the fall of the registered unemployment went the elder of the series (-27,071 vs-14,688 a year ago) and the contracting recovered its pushes, with the best detail from 2006 (1.6 millions) and the great growth in eight months (+15.8% year-on-year). In this context, the consumer spending is consolidated as an engine of the economy: retail sales grew in October a 5.3% year-on-year ones, the second highest rhythm of the historic series (+3.3% in the 3T15).

Furthermore, the industrial production still consolidates its recovery: it grew in October a 4% year-on-year ones (+3.9% in the 3T15). Lastly, the current account balance improved in September: it registered the great surplus of the series in the above-mentioned month (1,886 million euros) and, in accumulated terms of 12 months, reaches maximum of the latest year and middle (1.5% of the GDP).

EMU
According to preliminary data, the inflation of the EMU remained in November in the 0.1% (when dealing with the recovery that was expected), whereas the underlying one yielded two tenth until 0.9%. The evolution by countries has been uneven: it went up in Germany (0.3% vs 0.2%) and Spain (-0.4% vs-0.9%), and it fell in Italy (0.1% vs 0.3%). In the short term, the inflation will follow in very low securities, but it will go increasing in a gradual way until exceeding the 1.0% in the 4T16.

On the other hand, industrial orders in Germany, after three months disappointing, grew in October above the planned thing (1.8% vs-0.7% in September, revised with an upward trend), graces so much to internal orders (1.7% vs-0.4%) as to the external ones (1.8% vs-1.1%), above all, of the EMU (2.4% vs-4.7%). This incipient improvement is found in line with the showed positive evolution for different climate indicators industrial and it strengthens expectations of that the German GDP is increased between about 0.4%-0.5% quarterly in the 4T15 (0.3% in the 3T15).

USA
Surveys of November collect a generalised depreciation in the business expectations: the manufacturer ISM was placed at levels contractivos (48.6 vs 50.1, the worst record of the expansive phase actual) and also went down with force for the rest of sectors (55.9 vs 59.1). In the first case, the additional depreciation reflects the situation of a sector that is still ballasted for the strength of the dollar, the decrease of the external demand and low levels in the prices of raw materials. Furthermore, the decrease in the ISM not manufacturer seems more a correction from very high levels that a weakening of the service industry.

In addition, the rest of available activity indicators maintain the positive signal for the GDP for the last few months of the year: good job creation rhythm (217,000 in November vs 196,000, according to the survey ADP), dynamism of the consumer spending (good beginning of the Christmas campaign) and good tone of of the residential investment (1.0% in October vs 1.6%).

Other Markets
The GDP returned to fall with force for consecutive third quarter (-1.7% in the 3T15 and-4.5% accumulated in which we take of year), the worst spate of the economy from the thirties. In 2015, a contraction is expected of the-3.8% and they follow without appearing signals of improvement: the recession would be able to prolong until the second half of 2016.

In the meantime, the political situation also worsens: finally, the chairman of the Congress – implicated in the case Petrobras – has put in motion the process of parliamentary deposition against the chairwoman Rousseff, opening the umpteenth crisis in the country, intensifying the political paralysis and slowing down completely the political agenda of a government that barely has just fulfilled a year.