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Concorde Capital Ukraine: President signs law on lower green power tariffs

August 03, 2020 | Cbonds

The legislation that overhauls the conditions for green electricity producers was signed by the president and implemented as of Aug. 1. Among its key conditions are reducing feed-in tariffs for wind and solar power stations at preferential, predetermined prices till the end of 2029. In particular, for wind farms, tariffs will be 7.5% lower for those commissioned in 2H15-2019 (no changes for older capacities), and 2.5% lower for those commissioned as of 2020. For large solar stations (over 1 MW), the tariff will be 15% lower for those commissioned in 2H15-2019, 2.5% lower for those commissioned by end-October 2020, 30% lower for those commissioned between Nov. 1, 2020 and Mar. 31, 2021 (with capacity of no more than 75 MW) and 60% lower for those commissioned as of April 2021 (and those commissioned as of November 2020, with capacity exceeding 75 MW).

The new law also assumes that the state budget will provide financing to the guaranteed buyer of green electricity in the amount of at least 20% of the expected revenue of all green sources. Recall, the government initiated a revision of green rates based on a memorandum signed with some green energy producers in June. The initiative preceded a crisis on the electricity market, which resulted in a significant reduction of payments for green energy sources from the guaranteed buyer as of March 2020. Based on the memorandum, cuts in green tariffs should only follow the resumption of full payments for green electricity and restructuring of accumulated arrears.

Alexander Paraschiy: The legislation adds clarity about future green tariffs in Ukraine, though we do not rule out future revisions. For the biggest green energy operator, DTEK Renewables (DTEREN), the new green tariffs will only slightly reduce the fundamentals of its existing power stations. In particular, we estimate that the new rates will decrease DTEK Renewables’ EBITDA by about 4% in 2020 and 11% in 2021. Taking into account that new rules should improve the payment discipline of the state buyer of green energy (poor payments are the core problem now), the financial stability and liquidity of DTEK Renewables should improve, which might lead to a revision of its negative rating watch introduced by Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in June. Therefore, we have become bullish about DTEREN bonds.

At the same time, increased discounts for green tariffs that will be applied to new solar projects will likely lead to a radical revision of new projects by DTEK Renewables. For instance, the commissioning of two solar stations in 4Q21 for a total capacity of about 270 MW, as initially planned by the company, won’t make sense under the new legislation (the plants will be eligible for a EUR 43.5 / MWh green tariff, which does not look attractive). If the company reduces the capacity of its new solar farms to below 75 MW and is able to commission them in 1Q21, the rate will be way higher (EUR 76.15/MW) with twice as short a payback period.


Company: DTEK RENEWABLES

Full company nameDTEK RENEWABLES B.V.
Country of riskUkraine
Country of registrationNetherlands
IndustryPower

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