Moody's assigns provisional ratings to notes to be issued by Closed Joint Stock Company "Mortgage Agent NOMOS", Russian RMBS
December 10, 2012 Moody's Investors Service
Approximately RUB [3,753.253] million of Debt Securities affected
London, 10 December 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned
provisional long-term credit ratings to Notes to be issued by Closed
Joint Stock "Mortgage Agent NOMOS":
....Ru.Ruble [3,753.253]M Class A Residential Mortgage Backed Fixed Rate Bonds due 2045, Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf)
....Ru.Ruble [1,251.084]M Class B Notes were not rated by Moody's.
This transaction is the first securitisation of mortgages originated by Nomos Bank (Ba3). The portfolio consists of the Russian residential mortgage loans serviced by Nomos Bank. DeltaCredit Bank (Baa3/P-3) will be acting as back-up servicer in the transaction.
The rating takes into account the credit quality of the underlying mortgage loan pool, from which Moody's determined the MILAN Credit Enhancement and the portfolio expected loss, as well as the transaction structure and legal considerations. The expected portfolio loss of 7% and the MILAN required credit enhancement of 26% serve as input parameters for Moody's cash flow model and tranching model, which is based on a probabilistic lognormal distribution as described in the report "The Lognormal Method Applied to ABS Analysis", published in July 2000.
The most significant driver for the MILAN Credit Enhancement number, which is slightly higher than other MILAN CE numbers in the Russian RMBS transactions was the limited amount of historical information available from the originator, the fact that for about 34% of the borrowers income was verified using forms provided by the bank rather than official tax forms, and presence of large loans in the portfolio, where the top 20 borrowers represent approximately 5.2% of the pool and the current balance of the largest 20 loans ranges from RUB29.6mil to RUB9.4mil. The main driver for the expected loss, which is also in line with expected losses assumed for other Russian RMBS transactions, was the limited historical data available on the originator's portfolio. The weighted average current loan-to-value (LTV) of 63.8% based on minimum of the estimated purchase price and valuation or 60.6% based on valuation alone is slightly higher than the LTV observed in other Russian RMBS transactions.
The transaction benefits from an amortising reserve fund initially sized at 2.1% of the notes at closing and building up to 3.8% of the outstanding notes balance with the excess spread. The reserve fund is replenished before the interest payment on the unrated Class B notes. Subject to conditions such as cumulative defaults being below 5%, no unpaid principal deficiency, and Servicer rating being at least B2, the reserve fund may amortise at 3.8% of the outstanding notes down to a floor of 1.5% of initial note balance.
The provisional ratings address the expected loss posed to investors by the legal final maturity of the Notes. Moody's issues provisional ratings in advance of the final sale of securities, but these ratings represent only Moody's preliminary credit opinions. Upon a conclusive review of the transaction and associated documentation, Moody's will endeavour to assign definitive ratings to the Notes. A definitive rating may differ from a provisional rating. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on yield to investors.
The V Score for this transaction is High, which is in line with the score assigned for the Russian RMBS sector. The High V-Score reflects uncertainty associated with legal and regulatory environment in the sector, limited experience of the originator in the securitisation market, and limited performance data available for the book of the originator. V-Scores are a relative assessment of the quality of available credit information and of the degree of dependence on various assumptions used in determining the rating. High variability in key assumptions could expose a rating to more likelihood of rating changes. The V-Score has been assigned accordingly to the report "V-Scores and Parameter Sensitivities in the Major EMEA RMBS Sectors" published in April 2009.
Moody's Parameter Sensitivities: Even if the portfolio expected loss was increased from 7% to 14.5% and MILAN Credit Enhancement was increased from 26% to 41.6%, the model output indicates that the Class A notes would have achieved Baa3.
Moody's Parameter Sensitivities provide a quantitative/model-indicated calculation of the number of rating notches that a Moody's structured finance security may vary if certain input parameters used in the initial rating process differed. The analysis assumes that the deal has not aged and is not intended to measure how the rating of the security might migrate over time, but rather how the initial rating of the security might have differed if key rating input parameters were varied. Parameter Sensitivities for the typical EMEA RMBS transaction are calculated by stressing key variable inputs in Moody's primary rating model.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Other Factors used in this rating are described in Key Legal and Structural Rating Issues in Russian Securitisation Transactions published in June 2007.
In rating this transaction, Moody's used a cash flow model to model the cash flows and determine the loss for each tranche. The cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of the lognormal distribution assumed for the portfolio default rate. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss or EL for each tranche is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow model in each default scenario for each tranche. Moody's also considered scenarios where the Mortgage Agent has defaulted as a result of nonpayment of senior fees or interest on the notes, asset-liability mismatch, or insufficient mortgage coverage. In this case, Moody's assumed that the liquidation of assets occurred and the notes were repaid according to the post-enforcement waterfall using the proceeds of the asset liquidation assuming a recovery rate of 50%.
As such, Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.
Issue — Mortgage Agent NOMOS, class A
Country of riskRussia
Redemption (put/call option)
М/S&P/F— / — / —
Company — Mortgage Agent NOMOS
Full nameZAO Mortgage Agent NOMOS