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ICU Research: Liquidity declines without NBU support

January 28, 2013
Last Friday, banks' correspondent accounts with the NBU declined UAH2.08bn to UAH27.85bn while total NBU CDs outstanding rose UAH0.76bn to UAH4.59bn. Total government local currency debt repayments scheduled for the next 30 days remained steady at UAH2.35bn. As a result, broader banking sector liquidity slid UAH1.32bn to UAH34.79bn. KyivPrime interest rates slightly diverged last Friday: the KyivPrime ON interest rate rose 6bp to 1.14%, while the KyivPrime 1M interest rate remained steady at 8.55%.
Investment implications: Without support, liquidity declined for the second day in a row last Friday and will continue to decline this week due to tax payments scheduled at the end of this month. Scheduled inflows of UAH3.01bn this week will only partially cover tax payments and will most likely not prevent liquidity from declining further. NBU support will be required to maintain liquidity at its current level.