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Cbonds Consensus Forecast reflects expectations regarding Russian and world economic gauges, interest rates and bond yields in 2013

January 23, 2013

Cbonds is offering a consensus forecast for 2013 on key macroeconomic indicators, key interest rates and bond yields. Representatives of 30 banks and investment companies took part in the survey.

According to surveyed market participants, inflation in Russia is expected slightly above 6% in 2013; capital outflows will be close to 2% of GDP; an average bi-currency basket will be up to RUB 35.65 versus its current value of RUB 34.81.

Russian economy bottomed out at the end of 2012 and is likely to post minimum growth in Q1 2013 due to the high base effect of the pre-election Q1 2012, according to analysts from Alfa-Bank. Closer to the end of 2013 we may see the economy accelerate, but amid slowing growth of budget spending from 16%-18% y-o-y in 2012 to 2%-4% y-o-y in 2013 the annual GDP growth will be below the level of 2012.

2013 will be the year of big opportunities for the Russian financial market, according to Gazprombank. Liberalisation of the ruble market for non-residents will result in capital inflows, ruble appreciation in Q1 and a wider investor base. According to Gazprombank's vision, the CBR will shift to stimulating monetary policy by lowering rates at the beginning of Q2.

The European debt crisis peaked in 2012, and in 2013 the situation will be gradually stabilising, according to analysts from NOMOS-Bank. Recession in Europe will be over and the business cycle will turn up in H2. The US budget consolidation will evolve according to a rather mild scenario and will be a lengthy process, so there will be no sharp slowdown in the USA in 2013, says Kirill Tremasov, head of research at NOMOS-Bank.

 
Analysts from Veles Capital expect 2013 to be a make-or-break year. First of all, the Chinese economy will get back on track and recover its
pace; in H2 the US recovery will also accelerate. Amid this backdrop Europe will be able to get out of recession, but it is unlikely to happen before Q3.

The world economy will post modest growth in 2013 as main pressure will come from the eurozone economic weakness where austerity measures will prevail. However, according to Olga Belenkaya, deputy head of research at Sovlink, with world central banks continuing to pursue QE and keep interest rates low, we may see moderate growth of demand for risky assets and gold.

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