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T-bonds rebound and may draw support from macro data, zloty seen stable

January 14, 2013
Poland's T-bonds enjoyed a rebound on the outset of a week opulent in macro data, which may support the debt market further, while the zloty, driven by global factors, should remain stable, unless the December inflation figure out on Tuesday diverges significantly from the consensus, local players told PAP. 

"We witnessed a rebound [on the T-bond market] and yield declines," BNP Paribas FI trader Robert Hryciuk told PAP. "This week we are expecting data, which will surely be salient: it is hard to imagine for them to be negative for the bond market."

Poland's stats office GUS will publish the December CPI reading on Tuesday at 14:00 CET. Economists surveyed by PAP expect CPI to have hit 2.5%. December data on wages, employment or industrial output will be published on Friday.

The December slew of data "will be decisive as far as a potential rate reduction is concerned," rate setter Adam Glapinski told reporters on Monday.

The zloty remains driven by global factors and should remain stable regardless of the Tuesday inflation reading, unless the reading differs significantly from the consensus, ING BSK FX dealer Bartlomiej Rostek told PAP.

"Tomorrow we will be waiting for inflation, but the reading would have to be very surprising in order to influence the market," Rostek said. "If nothing happens, the zloty should remain stable," with global factors still overshadowing domestic ones."

On Tuesday, the EUR/PLN exchange rate moved above 4.13 in the morning, but during the day the move stalled as moods calmed down, the dealer noted.