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Zloty seen within EUR/PLN 4.08-4.10 range, T-bonds to hold to current levels until end-year

December 18, 2012
Poland's zloty is expected to trade within the bounds of EUR/PLN 4.08-4.10 range, unlikely to react to the November industrial output data, while Polish T-bonds are expected to stabilize until the end of the year, local players told PAP. 

"We are remaining in EUR/PLN 4.08-4.10 range," BPH FX dealer Marek Cherubin told PAP. "With decreasing [investors] activity we should remain in that range until the end of the year. Then expectations for interest rate changes will return."

Poland's November industrial output and PPI data due on Wednesday are not likely to affect the market, according to Cherubin.

Poland's industrial output is expected to have risen by 0.6% y/y in November on a 3.4% m/m decline, according to analysts surveyed by PAP. PPI is seen up 0.1% y/y and m/m.

Poland's debt market should also remain at current levels until end-year, PKO BP FI trader Maciej Popiel told PAP.

"Little is going on, there are single transactions on the market," Popiel said. "We should remain at current levels by the end of the year."

The labor market data published Tuesday by Poland's stats office GUS "fell within the scenario of an interest rate cut at the nearest MPC sitting," the trader added.

Poland's average corporate gross wage measured PLN 3780.64 in November, up by 2.7% year on year and up by 1.7% month on month, the stats office GUS said. Poland's corporate employment declined 0.3% y/y and decreased by 0.2% m/m.