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Mriya Agroholding: Favourable weather looks priced in

December 6, 2012

Alexander Paraschiy, Head of Research, Concorde Capital:

We upgrade Mryia stock to HOLD and raise our target price 1.2x to USD 6.5/share, mainly accounting for its improved harvest outlook and better soft commodity prices this season. Mryia trades at a premium to its more liquid Warsaw-listed peers, a phenomenon which is hard to accept.
Mryia’s harvest update was slightly confusing and didn’t match the performance of its core region (based on UkrStat data), while its result is much better than Ukraine’s average. Our main concern is sugar beet, Mriya’s strategic crop, the yields of which reportedly declined on Mriya’s fields, despite its core Ternopil region demonstrated strong yield growth in the first month of harvesting.
Though we downgrade our harvest outlook for Mriya’s sugar beet, revise our total harvest estimate for Mriya upward. The company demonstrated mid-single-digit advance in wheat and rapeseed (when we expected a decline). We also note the company is likely to outperform its FY12 guidance with sales of USD 280 mln and EBITDA of USD 200 mln.
Being currently cash rich, the company initiated a massive project of investment into storage infrastructure, an endeavour that we usually regard warily.

  • Status
    redeemed
  • Country of risk
    Ukraine
  • Redemption (put/call option)
    *** (***)
  • Amount
    250,000,000 USD
  • М/S&P/F
    — / — / —