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ICU Research: Liquidity remains stable

November 28, 2012

Taras Kotovych, Fixed-income analyst, Investment Capital Ukraine:

On Monday, banks repaid UAH489.6m of ON loans issued last Friday, received only UAH12.2m of ON loans and UAH10.0m of repos from the NBU. Despite these cash flows, banks' correspondent accounts with the NBU remained steady at UAH20.52bn. Total debt repayments scheduled for the next 30 days rose UAH0.09bn to UAH8.17bn, while total NBU CDs outstanding remained steady at UAH0.02bn. Broader banking sector liquidity, an indicator combined from the two above-mentioned indicators, rose UAH0.09bn to UAH28.71bn yesterday KyivPrime interest rates continued to move down yesterday: the KyivPrime ON interest rate declined 220bp to 8.00%, the first time since September, 2012, while the KyivPrime 1M interest rate slid 5bp to 37.25%.
Investment implications: This small period between the quarterly and monthly tax payments likely caused slight stability in liquidity when small cash flows did not take effect on it on Monday, as shown in the unchanged level of banks' correspondent accounts with the NBUyesterday's morning when there were also small outflows from liquidity. Today, although we expect higher cash flow than earlier this week, they will not have a significant impact on liquidity. Liquidity should decline closer toward the end of this week as monthly tax payments are scheduled then.