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UFS Daily Review: Volatile week with mixed dynamics

November 26, 2012
Bond market: Eurobonds

Russian Eurobonds did not post marked dynamics on Friday and were mostly flat. Russia-30 stayed at 126.6% of the nominal.

In the corporate sector outperforming dynamics was shown by metallurgical companies that have been recently much oversold; Evraz issues sank the most during the latest correction and now have fair chances to start growing—the more so since Evraz has recently reported good news, namely pending deals on asset sales. On Friday Evraz-18 added 0.4%, while Evraz-17 settled up 0.25%. About 0.4% growth was also demonstrated by Raspadskaya-17, while issues of Severstal added 0.15%. Sistema-19 edged up 0.2% on upbeat IFRS statements for 9 months released last week.

This week we envisage no pronounced dynamics, though individual issues will retain trading ideas.
Investors’ attention will be focused on the primary market. This week two issuers are conducting road-shows—Rosneft and TCS Bank. Rosneft will complete its road-show on Wednesday; the placement is likely to be made on the same day. TCS Bank is unlikely to sell its subordinated Eurobond until the end of this or the start of the next week.

The placement of sovereign Eurobonds by Belarus is also going to be interesting. The road-show is starting tomorrow and ending on Friday.

Local bond market

On Friday OFZ market was correcting. Price decline totalled was about 0.1% on the long-term segment and 0.2% in the short- and medium-term sections.

4-year 26203 dropped 0.23%; 5-year 26206 decreased 0.2%; 9-year 46018 lost 0.26%.
Russia-18-OFZ-26204 is now 75 b. p.

Mixed dynamics prevailed in the corporate segment on Friday. Players used trading ideas after a number of issues had been included on the Lombard list.

Yesterday VEB-6 (+1.7%), NFC BO-1 and BO-2 were in demand, up 0.65% and 0.64% respectively. Some issues were under selling pressure. Thus, Russian Post-1 sank 0.35%; Promsvyazbank BO-3 dipped 0.25%, while MTS-8 edged down 0.1%.

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