VTB: Russia's CPI remained at 6.5% YoY as of 12 November
November 16, 2012
According to Rosstat, the CPI increased 0.22% in the first twelve days of November. The average daily price growth accelerated further to 0.021% during 7–12 November, from 0.015% in the previous week, and exceeded the 0.016% for 8–14 November last year.
The detailed breakdown shows that last week’s growth came mainly from WoW rises in flour (0.8%), eggs (0.6%), sunflower oil (0.5%), millet (0.4%) and heating (0.3%). Meanwhile, the deflation in fruit and vegetables weakened further to -0.1% WoW (from -0.6% WoW during the previous week). Gasoline prices remained unchanged last week.
The weekly CPI increased to 0.13% WoW (from 0.09% WoW during the first November’s week), while YoY growth remained stable at 6.5%. Last week’s acceleration in prices growth was expected as deflation in fruit and vegetables is coming to an end (-0.1% this week); besides, it bodes well our expectations of fullmonth CPI growth at 0.5–0.7% MoM and 6.6–6.8% YoY in November and in line with our expectations of end of tightening cycle by CBR.
Dmitry Loukashov, Alexander Kirevnin, Ekaterina Rodina, Elena Kopylova, Mikhail Zarkhi
VTB Capital analysts