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VTB Capital: Fixed Income Monitor

November 8, 2012
Russian/CIS bonds: volatile session

The Russian/CIS bond space was extremely busy yesterday. The session opened strong and literally all the offers on the screens lifted several times in a row, as global risk sentiment was rather upbeat in the morning. However, things later turned a corner and the S&P 500 went on to close 2.5% in the red. Consequently, sellers started battering EM bonds as well, reversing the morning’s price action. As a result, most of the outstanding issues in our universe closed lower except for quasi-sovereign banks and TNK-BP. In particular, VTB bonds were up 0.50-0.75pp at the end of the day and TMENRU 20 (YTM 3.85%) closed near 50bp higher in price. Meanwhile, longer-dated VEB and Sberbank notes firmed near 25bp yesterday. In contrast, the rest of the Russian bond space lost near 50bp in price terms yesterday, e.g. RUSSIA 42 (YTM 4.29%) slid near 35bp in price and widened about 5bp in spread. Ukrainian bonds came under increased pressure and the longer end of the Ukrainian sovereign curve slipped near 1.50pp price wise.