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VTB Capital: Fixed Income Monitor

November 7, 2012
Russian/CIS bonds: stronger on the day

Sovereign and high-grade non-government bonds were clearly a hot spot yesterday in the Russian bond space. RUSSIA 42 (YTM 4.29%) gained near 1.25pp in price and tightened about 10bp in spread. The rest of the curve was also fairly well bid, and it looks as though dealers' inventories are fairly light now. We also saw a nice flow going through the longer end of Gazprom's and TNK-BP's curves: GAPZRU 34 (YTM
5.27%) gained near 1.00pp, while TMENRU 20 (YTM 3.941%) advanced almost 1.50pp. The spread between TNK-BP and other high-grade Russian oil and gas names has tightened markedly over the last couple of session and we therefore believe the initial negative reaction to news of Rosneft’s acquisition of TNK-BP is almost fully reversed. Quasi-sovereign banks performed nicely as well, with mid-term VEB and VTB bonds up near 0.75pp in price. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian sovereign curve was fairly resilient to the news that the parliament voted to grant the NBU the right to introduce obligatory FX sales by exporters. Only UKRAINE 17 (YTM 6.72%) was hit, slipping near 50bp in price.