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Zloty expected to move in EUR 4.10-4.15 range, T-bonds await MPC comments

November 5, 2012
Poland's zloty is expected to move in EUR 4.10-4.15 range at least till the rate council announces its November decision on Wednesday, while the Treasury bond market is waiting for the council's move and rhetoric with 25 bp cut already priced in, local players told PAP Monday morning. 

"The zloty remains stable in EUR 4.10-4.15 range and will remain so as no stimuli for its strengthening are seen coming," Millennium Bank dealer Pawel Gajewski told PAP. "The data coming from the economy as well as the expected interest rate cut are not conducive to zloty strengthening."

"25 bps rate cut is in prices, a 50 bps cut could weaken the zloty to EUR 4.18 or momentarily to 4.20," the dealer added.

Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) begins its November sitting on Tuesday. The decision and comments on rates are expected on Wednesday.

The Treasury market is opening flat from Friday levels and the market is awaiting MPC decision and statement following the move, PKO BP bond trader Maciej Popiel said.

"The market is beginning flat from Friday levels," Maciej Popiel told PAP. "The most important event the market is waiting for is the MPC decision."

"25 bps is in prices, as well as announcements of deeper cuts," he also said.

Analysts surveyed by PAP expect the council to take the first 25 bps from official interest rates to open an easing cycle on Wednesday.