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Poland’s zloty and T-bonds stable; look to situation in southern Europe

October 8, 2012
The Polish zloty and T-bonds are expected to consolidate this week in the absence of local drivers, while following global sentiment as well as events in southern Europe, local players told PAP. 

"In the coming days, in absence of important publications and events, I expect the zloty to consolidate within the EUR/PLN 4.05-4.10 range," ING BSK FX dealer Bartlomiej Rostek told PAP. "The markets are following newsflow from Spain and Greece, and global sentiment remains decisive."

The Monday session was calm due to a holiday in the US, with the zloty trading 4.07-4.09 to the euro, the dealer said. "We have bounced off Friday's lowest levels."

T-bonds will be sensitive to foreign factors this week - core market results and the situation in southern Europe, BRE Bank bond trader Pawel Bialczynski told PAP.

"This week there are no data releases in Poland that could significantly affect the debt market. . .," Bialczynski said. "We are still observing core markets, German Bunds as well as Spain's and Italy's debt."

Monday saw a slight strengthening in the morning in the wake of rate setters' comments but those small gains were given away in the second part of the day, the trader said.

"Investors are largely prepared for rate cuts so announcements of cuts support the market only for a short time," he explained.

Rate setter Adam Glapinski told PAP in an interview published Monday morning that he would be ready to support an interest rate cut at the November sitting if the new inflation projection confirmed that a serious economic slowdown was approaching and that inflation was safely headed for the target.

Elzbieta Chojna-Duch, in turn, told TVN CNBC that Poland should cut its reference interest rate by 100 bps to end-2013, with the first rate cut more radical.