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Daiwa: Quarterly Global Economic Outlook (Q4 2012)

October 5, 2012
Events in the euro area continue to dominate the thoughts of market participants. With market tensions having reached unprecedented levels in late July, it was left to the ECB once again to come to the rescue, with Draghi following up his promise to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro with the announcement of a new, conditional, ECB bond-purchase programme. But significant uncertainties remain, not least over if/when Spain and/or Italy apply for the full ESM programmes that are a precondition of ECB bond purchases. We expect Spain to apply for an ESM programme later in the autumn, unlocking ECB and ESM bond purchases. But doubts will remain over the Spanish government’s ability to stick to the conditionality embodied in the programme, not least given uncertainties over both the political situation and the eventual size and nature of the banking bailout. And once a Spanish package is agreed, the focus may well turn to Italy, where a combination of deep recession, high debt and political uncertainty all leave the government vulnerable. Nevertheless, with Greece looking set to be granted a stay of execution, the ECB’s actions have presented an opportunity for a breathing space to be created. But, ultimately, markets continue to hanker after much closer fiscal union in the euro area, something that is undeliverable in the near term. Against that backdrop, global risk aversion looks set to remain heightened.

See full report in research section of EU.Cbonds.