Treasuries Drop in Sympathy with German Bunds

July 07, 2017 - Morningstar


U.S. Treasuries moved lower today in a curve-steepening trade as a weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change number (158K vs. consensus 185K) and a sharp drop in U.S. equities failed to generate buying interest for high-quality government bonds. Dominating investors' consciences was instead the break higher of the 10-year German bund yield out of its 6-month range and a better-than-expected ISM Services report. The index rose to a six-month high of 57.4 in June ( consensus 56.6) and that came on the back of a positive surprise from ISM Manufacturing on Monday. ADP's estimate of U.S. job growth last month, released this morning, was worse than expected but the data series has had a very strong run and even today's rate would continue to absorb slack in the labor market. Also weighing on the Treasury complex was a mid-day rally in crude oil prices following the report of a surprisingly large decline in stockpiles last week, although those gains were later reversed. On Friday, investors will see the Department of Labor's June Employment Situation Report. The S&P 500 now trades down 0.73% to 2,414.7 and the U.S. Dollar Index is losing 0.51% to 95.80.

Yield Check:
2-yr: unch at 1.40%;
5-yr: +3 bps to 1.94%;
10-yr: +5 bps to 2.37%;
30-yr: +5 bps to 2.90%.
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