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Ukrsibbank research: FX and interest rates: Half empty or half full?

August 29, 2019 | Cbonds

FinMin attracted UAH1.77bn on the primary debt auction held on August 23. Investors were notably focused on 5.5y bonds, total demand for which exceeded UAH2.3bn. Taking into account, that these securities are of primary interest for foreigners, pessimists may argue that non-residents' interest to Ukraine is starting to cool down. Conversely, optimists may point out that FinMin has “sacrificed” demand at UAH1bn for the sake of reducing cut-off rate by 20 basis points (bps) to 15.3%, hence signaling about its confidence that demand profile has not materially changed. While both sides look reasonable, we rather stick to optimistic one, pointing that foreigners are still there.
The next time the 5.5y notes will be offered will be on September 24. In order to meet JPM GBI index’ requirement regarding minimum amount of bonds outstanding (USD1bn), the ministry still have to place securities for about UAH3.6bn (circa USD142mn).
Demand for the rest of bonds tendered (6m, 1y and 3y) didn’t exceed UAH0.5bn in total. Nevertheless, the cut-off rate for half-year bonds was reduced by 20bps to 16% and for 1y bonds – by 16bps to 16.3%.

Company: Ukraine

Full company nameUkraine
Country of riskUkraine

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