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Cbonds Consensus, Russia 2013 

The poll was held on 20.12.2012-11.01.2013. Number of respondents: 30. Publication date: 22.01.2013
World economyAverage forecastMedianActual value, 2012
  Global GDP, %
2.72.63.3
  US GDP, %
1.921.82.6
  Eurozone GDP, %
0.030-0.6
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
1.9921.7
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
1.821.82.2
  Urals, US$/ barrel
107.7108.5110.42
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
176717501658
  S&P 500
153915331426
  EUR/USD
1.271.281.32
Russian economyAverage forecastMedianActual value, 2012
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
3.263.233.5
  Industrial production, %
2.782.82.5
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
6.096.16.6
  Unemployment, %
5.645.685.4
  Current account, % of GDP
2.372.383.7
  Trade balance, % of GDP
7.47.69.1
  Budget deficit, % of GDP
-0.14-0.2-0.02
  Real disposable income, %
3.573.656.7
  Capex, %
6.066.48.4
  Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP
-1.84-2.3-2.9
  Russia Gross External Debt, USD bln
656653.5623.96
  Russia International Reserves, USD bln
544545538
  USD/RUR
31.7531.7530.37
  EUR/RUR
40.3440.2340.23
  Dual-currency basket/RUR
35.6535.7934.81
  RTSI
173117251527
Key interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual value, 2012
  Federal funds rate, %
0.250.250.25
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.570.50.75
  Refinancing Rate of CBR, %
7.9188.25
  Deposit rate, O/N, %
4.364.254.5
  3M LIBOR USD
0.360.330.31
  3M EURIBOR
0.230.190.19
  NDF USD/RUR 1Y mid
5.875.756.07
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual value, 2012
  UST 10Y YTM
2.0121.78
  Bund 10Y YTM
1.71.71.32
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
2.832.782.58
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
ОФЗ 26203
6.196.236.42
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
ОФЗ 26208
6.426.56.57
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
8.028.37.9
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
7.77.738.56
  Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (2Y), %
8.658.78.93
  Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (1Y), %
10.811110.9
 
Cbonds Consensus represents aggregated outlooks of analysts on key indicators of world economy, interest rates, bond and international bond market yields. Consensus calculations are based on data collection results from leading investment banks and bringing the data to average. Cbonds Consensuses are published on the following indicators: GDP, inflation, oil and gold prices, currency rates, key interest rates of Central Banks, yields of government, municipal and corporate bonds and international bonds with different maturities. The system allows viewing detailed consensuses by all the indicators from each investment bank, which provides information. The data can be downloaded in Excel.