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Cbonds Consensus, Russia, 2012 

20.12.2011-31.12.2011
World economyAverage forecastMedianActual value, 2011
  Global GDP, %
33.23.5
  US GDP, %
1.91.91.8
  Eurozone GDP, %
0.40.41.6
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
2.32.33.4
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
2.122.7
  Urals, US$/ barrel
Среднегодовой прогноз цен на нефть Urals
104.2105107.1
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
182217501531
  S&P 500
127912851257.6
  EUR/USD
1.31.31.29
Russian economyAverage forecastMedianActual value, 2011
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
Прогноз темпа роста ВВП за 2012 год. Фактическое значение приведено за 9M2011 г.
3.363.54.1
  Industrial production, %
3.793.55.1
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
6.76.636.1
  Unemployment, %
6.66.56.4
  Current account, % of GDP
3.212.86.1
  Trade balance, % of GDP
8.17812.3
  Budget deficit, % of GDP
-1.24-1.50.8
  Real disposable income, %
3.363.51.5
  Capex, %
5.655.157.7
  Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP
-2.68-2.1-5.5
  Russia Gross External Debt, USD bln
529540538.9
  Russia International Reserves, USD bln
525530497.4
  USD/RUR
31.4131.2332.02
  EUR/RUR
40.8841.4241.41
  Dual-currency basket/RUR
35.9635.8836.24
  RTSI
172017001381.87
Key interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual value, 2011
  Federal funds rate, %
0.250.250.25
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.740.751
  Refinancing Rate of CBR, %
7.777.758
  Deposit rate, Overnight, %
3.944
  3M LIBOR USD
0.490.50.58
  3M EURIBOR
1.020.951.36
  MOSPRIME 3M
6.416.387.22
  NDF USD/RUR 1Y mid
6.296.30
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual value, 2011
  UST 10Y YTM
2.32.21.88
  Bund 10Y YTM
2.072.051.83
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
4.464.54.6
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
7.347.37.5
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
7.817.98.11
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
8.28.28.3
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
8.218.28.75
  Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (2Y), %
9.1799.17
  Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (1Y), %
11.071111.07
 
Cbonds Consensus represents aggregated outlooks of analysts on key indicators of world economy, interest rates, bond and international bond market yields. Consensus calculations are based on data collection results from leading investment banks and bringing the data to average. Cbonds Consensuses are published on the following indicators: GDP, inflation, oil and gold prices, currency rates, key interest rates of Central Banks, yields of government, municipal and corporate bonds and international bonds with different maturities. The system allows viewing detailed consensuses by all the indicators from each investment bank, which provides information. The data can be downloaded in Excel.