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Cbonds Consensus, Russia 2015 

The poll was held on 10-31.12.2014. Number of respondents: 16. Publication date: 26.01.2015
World economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Global GDP, %
2014, 3rd quarter data
2.842.82.76
  US GDP, %
2014, 3rd quarter data
2.8932.7
  Eurozone GDP, %
2014, 3rd quarter data
1.081.050.8
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
1.51.50.76
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
0.570.45-0.15
  Brent Crude Oil
65.0665.557.54
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
125412501206
  S&P 500
2225.8322002058.9
  EUR/USD (ECB)
1.181.21.21
Russian economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
2014, 3rd quarter data
-2.77-2.450.7
  Industrial production, %
-1.53-11.7
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
10.219.611.4
  Unemployment, %
6.1865.2
  Current account, % of GDP
2014, 3rd quarter data
3.312.91.37
  Trade balance, % of GDP
2014, 3rd quarter data
6.856.451.08
  Budget deficit, % of GDP
-3.05-0.85-0.5
  Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP
-5.23-6-12.1
  Gross external debt, $ billion
515535599.5
  Exchange reserves, $ billion
339.38350385.46
  USD/RUB
57.285856.26
  EUR/RUB (ECB)
67.286668.34
  Dual-currency basket/RUB
62.636261.7
  RTSI
928.33980790.71
Key interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual
  Federal funds rate, %
0.610.50.25
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.120.10.05
  Key rate of CBR, %
11.911.7517
  Deposit rate, O/N, %
13.671516
  3M LIBOR USD
0.470.40.26
  3M EURIBOR
0.060.050.08
  MOSPRIME 3M
17.61523.77
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual
  UST 10Y YTM
2.472.52.17
  Bund 10Y YTM
0.810.60.54
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
5.695.755.1
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
Cbonds-GBI RU 1-3Y
1312.514.76
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
Cbonds-GBI RU 5Y
12.8812.2513.53
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
Cbonds-Muni
13.51315.32
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
IFX-Cbonds
14.331515.65
  Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (2Y), %
Cbonds-CBI RU BB
15.8315.517
  Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (1Y), %
Cbonds-CBI RU B
19.3318.521.61
 
Cbonds Consensus represents aggregated outlooks of analysts on key indicators of world economy, interest rates, bond and international bond market yields. Consensus calculations are based on data collection results from leading investment banks and bringing the data to average. Cbonds Consensuses are published on the following indicators: GDP, inflation, oil and gold prices, currency rates, key interest rates of Central Banks, yields of government, municipal and corporate bonds and international bonds with different maturities. The system allows viewing detailed consensuses by all the indicators from each investment bank, which provides information. The data can be downloaded in Excel.
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