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Cbonds Consensus, Russia 2014 

The poll was held on 20-31.12.2013. Number of respondents: 18. Publication date: 28.01.2014
World economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Global GDP, %
Оценочные данные
3.0732.9
  US GDP, %
Данные за 3-ий квартал 2013
2.512.52
  Eurozone GDP, %
Данные за 3-ий квартал 2013
0.820.9-0.4
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
1.631.71.5
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
1.211.250.8
  Brent Crude Oil
105.54105110.9
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
120512001204.5
  S&P 500
1917.519501848.36
  EUR/USD
1.311.311.38
Russian economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
2.0721.4
  Industrial production, %
1.1510.3
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
5.155.26.5
  Unemployment, %
5.715.755.4
  Current account, % of GDP
1.611.21.5
  Trade balance, % of GDP
5.396.56.1
  Budget deficit, % of GDP
-0.5-0.5-0.5
  Real disposable income, %
2.933.3
  Capex, %
2.4533.2
  Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP
-2.34-2.2-2.5
  Gross external debt, $ billion
Данные за 3-ий квартал 2013
846.67860714.21
  Exchange reserves, $ billion
508502509.6
  USD/RUB
33.833.732.73
  EUR/RUB
44.0944.544.97
  Dual-currency basket/RUB
38.3738.5438.24
  RTSI
1596.3315871442.73
Key interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual
  Federal funds rate, %
0.250.250.25
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.280.250.25
  Refinancing Rate of CBR, %
7.897.758.25
  Key rate of CBR, %
5.155.255.5
  Deposit rate, Overnight, %
4.384.314.5
  3M LIBOR USD
0.270.250.25
  3M EURIBOR
0.260.240.29
  MOSPRIME 3M
6.526.57.15
  NDF USD/RUB 1Y mid
6.0565.89
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual
  UST 10Y YTM
3.243.183.04
  Bund 10Y YTM
2.1121.93
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
4.344.44.09
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
6.336.46.96
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
6.836.87.72
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
7.997.888.09
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
7.787.98.09
  Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (2Y), %
8.818.387.98
  Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (1Y), %
11.2211.511.87
 
Cbonds Consensus represents aggregated outlooks of analysts on key indicators of world economy, interest rates, bond and international bond market yields. Consensus calculations are based on data collection results from leading investment banks and bringing the data to average. Cbonds Consensuses are published on the following indicators: GDP, inflation, oil and gold prices, currency rates, key interest rates of Central Banks, yields of government, municipal and corporate bonds and international bonds with different maturities. The system allows viewing detailed consensuses by all the indicators from each investment bank, which provides information. The data can be downloaded in Excel.