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Cbonds Consensus, Russia 2013 

The poll was held on 15.09.2013-01.10.2013, Number of respondents: 19. Publication date: 09.10.2013
World economyAverage forecastMedianActual value, September 2013
  Global GDP, %
2.542.72
  US GDP, %
1.831.831.6
  Eurozone GDP, %
-0.06-0.25-0.5
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
1.521.61.47
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
1.41.51.3
  Brent Crude Oil
106.75107108.2
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
135213531327
  S&P 500
168617251680
  EUR/USD
1.321.321.35
Russian economyAverage forecastMedianActual value, September 2013
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
1.861.831.6
  Industrial production, %
0.710.60.1
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
6.126.14.5
  Unemployment, %
5.485.455.2
  Current account, % of GDP
2.642.52.4
  Trade balance, % of GDP
8.398.158
  Budget deficit, % of GDP
-0.57-0.50.5
  Real disposable income, %
3.633.752.1
  Capex, %
0.660.60.5
  Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP
3.173.22.5
  Gross external debt, $ billion
705710720
  Exchange reserves, $ billion
517516522
  USD/RUR
32.5332.6532.34
  EUR/RUR
42.8942.843.8
  Dual-currency basket/RUR
37.2637.3537.43
  RTSI
149315001422
Key interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual value, September 2013
  Federal funds rate, %
0.190.190.25
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.480.50.5
  Refinancing Rate of CBR, %
8.138.258.25
  Deposit rate, Overnight, %
4.584.54.5
  3M LIBOR USD
0.270.250.25
  3M EURIBOR
0.250.220.23
  MOSPRIME 3M
6.436.56.82
  NDF USD/RUR 1Y mid
6.116.16.25
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual value, September 2013
  UST 10Y YTM
2.772.82.64
  Bund 10Y YTM
1.881.91.78
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
4.063.954.05
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
6.196.256.34
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
6.676.66.72
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
7.9887.79
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
7.787.88.04
  Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (2Y), %
8.0788
  Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (1Y), %
10.3310.2510
 
Cbonds Consensus represents aggregated outlooks of analysts on key indicators of world economy, interest rates, bond and international bond market yields. Consensus calculations are based on data collection results from leading investment banks and bringing the data to average. Cbonds Consensuses are published on the following indicators: GDP, inflation, oil and gold prices, currency rates, key interest rates of Central Banks, yields of government, municipal and corporate bonds and international bonds with different maturities. The system allows viewing detailed consensuses by all the indicators from each investment bank, which provides information. The data can be downloaded in Excel.