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Cbonds Consensus, Russia 2013 

The poll was held on 20.06.2013-01.07.2013. Number of respondents: 13. Publication date: 11.07.2013
World economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Global GDP, %
2.412.53.3
  US GDP, %
1.911.951.6
  Eurozone GDP, %
-0.41-0.55-1.1
  Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), %
1.641.51.6
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), %
1.531.51.2
  Brent Crude Oil
104.17105106.53
  Gold (USD/ounce, London)
1343.751327.51240
  S&P 500
1633.3316551615
  EUR/USD
1.281.291.29
Russian economyAverage forecastMedianActual
  Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %
2.462.552.1
  Industrial production, %
2.151.8-1.4
  Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %
6.516.47.3
  Unemployment, %
5.45.55.2
  Current account, % of GDP
2.552.53
  Trade balance, % of GDP
8.2814.2
  Capex, %
3.42.50.4
  Russia Gross External Debt, USD bln
726.67750703
  Exchange reserves, $ billion
533.2525519.4
  USD/RUB
32.4532.533.16
  EUR/RUB
42.142.243.1
  Dual-currency basket/RUB
37.2637.2537.63
  RTSI
141913951284.25
Key interest rates, %Average forecastMedianActual
  Federal funds rate, %
0.250.250.25
  ECB refinancing rate, %
0.50.50.5
  Refinancing Rate of CBR, %
7.988.25
  Deposit rate, Overnight, %
4.384.254.5
  3M LIBOR USD
0.280.280.27
  3M EURIBOR
0.20.220.22
  MOSPRIME 3M
6.796.87.02
  NDF USD/RUB 1Y mid
6.136.256.35
Benchmark yield, %Average forecastMedianActual
  UST 10Y YTM
2.622.653.49
  Bund 10Y YTM
1.821.71.65
  Russia-2030 YTM, %
3.763.54.08
  OFZ YTM 3Y, %
6.216.056.3
  OFZ YTM 5Y, %
6.736.57.55
  Muni YTM (3Y), %
7.9187.85
  Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), %
7.917.88.3
  Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (2Y), %
8.618.688.7
  Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (1Y), %
11.2711.311
 
Cbonds Consensus represents aggregated outlooks of analysts on key indicators of world economy, interest rates, bond and international bond market yields. Consensus calculations are based on data collection results from leading investment banks and bringing the data to average. Cbonds Consensuses are published on the following indicators: GDP, inflation, oil and gold prices, currency rates, key interest rates of Central Banks, yields of government, municipal and corporate bonds and international bonds with different maturities. The system allows viewing detailed consensuses by all the indicators from each investment bank, which provides information. The data can be downloaded in Excel.
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