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October 03, 2008
UkrSibbank Fixed Income Flash - NBU has no choice but to extend a hand to FX market. Expect a very tough week though.
ING Wholesale Banking Russia
CIS Fixed Income Daily
-Russia: FX and gold reserves up $3.4bn to $562.8bn in week to 26 September
-Ukraine: NBU tests new hryvnia level
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: NBU tests new hryvnia level
Credit Europe Bank RUSSIAN ECONOMY. IN & OUT. QUARTERLY REPORT. Q3 / 2008
October 02, 2008
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell. Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
Fitch Ratings FITCH SPECIAL REPORT: UKRAINE: RISKS MOUNTING FOR EXTERNAL FINANCES
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: MM comment: The market became calmer as the seasonal factor has passed
ICU Daily Insight. Larger liquidity, Naftogaz, and general worries weaken hryvnia to three-and-a-half-year low
Morgan Stanley United States. Review and Preview
Description
Treasuries beyond the very short end bounced around a decent amount over the past week but didn’t end up much changed as investors largely focused on the political wrangling in Washington over the financial market bailout plan. Going into the weekend it seemed likely but not certain that a bill would be passed, but considerable uncertainty remained about the exact form any bill would take and how successful it might thus end up being, with particular concerns about how any government demands for equity stakes in participating firms would be structured. The potential flood of Treasury supply that might be required to fund the plan was a negative for the market, which had trouble taking down a record 5-year auction, though the huge 2-year sale went fine. On the other hand, flight to safety remained strong in the market as in by far the week’s most notable market activity the very short end – interbank, financing and money markets – were to varying extents in near-meltdown mode at midweek before showing some improvement Thursday and Friday. Even after some signs of life late in the week, these markets ended the week in bad shape, and it will be crucial that some stability be restored going forward to avoid potentially devastating impacts on the broader markets and the economy. Economic data were ignored through the week as investors focused on more pressing concerns, but the key data that were released – durable goods, home sales, jobless claims and a couple more regional manufacturing surveys – were terrible and didn’t leave a lot of doubt that the economy is already in recession. We cut our 3Q GDP forecast to 0.0% from +1.0%. Our base case had been modest contractions in GDP in 4Q08 and 1Q09, but the risk of a bigger and more protracted downturn is clearly becoming greater as the financial system seizes up and hoards liquidity to a probably unprecedented extent. On the week, benchmark Treasury coupon yields ended relatively narrowly mixed, considering the level of turmoil, with the 10-year for some reason performing terribly on the curve. Trading conditions in Treasuries and many other markets were extremely illiquid. The old 2-year Treasury yield fell 11bp to 2.01% (the new issue ended at 2.06% after being auctioned Wednesday at 2.115%) and the old 5-year yield dipped 2bp to 2.97% (the new issue closed at 3.01% after being auctioned Thursday, with a nearly 5bp tail, at 3.13%), while the 10-year yield rose 2bp to 3.825%, and the 30-year yield fell 2bp to 4.35%. Even with energy prices rising on the week − November oil gained US$4 a barrel to US$107 and October gasoline US$0.07 a gallon to US$2.67 – TIPS resumed with a vengeance the underperforming trend that’s been in place since early July after a brief bit of major outperformance when the bailout plan was first announced, and nominal Treasuries plunged, with the 5-year TIPS yield up 22bp to 1.84%, the 10-year 24bp to 2.07% and the 20-year 13bp to 2.45%. The inflation breakeven on the shortest-dated Jan 09 issue is now deeply in negative territory, but even the next maturing April 10 issue is trading with a slightly negative inflation breakeven, which is hard to make any fundamental sense of. Indeed, inflation swaps to April 2010 are nowhere near that level, but investors who might try to take advantage of that seeming arbitrage don’t have the luxury generally of using ‘hold to maturity’ valuations if they put on the trade and it continues moving further out of whack. As Treasury coupons and risk markets bounced around in comparatively constrained ranges and with relatively muted moves on the week, the short-term money, interbank and financing markets were the real focus as they appeared to be approaching a meltdown midweek before pressures eased up somewhat late in the week but remained intense. Some part of these extreme dislocations are certainly related to severe quarter-end balance sheet pressures – which resulted in terrible liquidity conditions through the week across various markets – but the extent to which these problems are more fundamental and last beyond the quarter-end turn remains unclear at this point and will be crucial for the state of markets and the economy going forward. If the basic underlying wiring of the financial system and by extension the economy continues to short circuit, the repercussions will be severe. Money markets saw some tentative signs of improvement towards week-end but remained badly strained. The 3-month bill’s bond equivalent yield fell 15bp on the week to 0.86% and the 4-week plunged 74bp to just 0.12%, but at least yields didn’t trade at negative levels as they did briefly during the prior week. One thing that makes these rock-bottom bill yields particularly amazing is that the Treasury has absolutely flooded the market with supply to an extent we’ve never seen anything even approaching before. On top of regular weekly bill issuance, where sizes are already elevated, an astounding US$300 billion in cash management bills were sold between September 17 and September 29 as part to the Special Financing Program the Treasury implemented to help the Fed with its balance sheet, and aside from some relatively minor concessions at some of the auctions, the market took all this paper down without any let-up in the pressure on short rates. Trends in agency money market paper – as effectively risk-free from a credit perspective as T-bills since the government’s GSE intervention – were mixed on the week. Rates on very short-term paper came down quite a bit, but 3-month yields ended Friday near 2.75%, up from 2.30% at the end of the prior week – a huge and rising premium over 3-month T-bills. On the positive side, the agencies were able to issue very large volumes of discount notes at these elevated yields late in the week, so money market investors were returning to this paper (balance sheet-constrained dealers certainly weren’t doing much buying) to a notable extent after there had been periods of heavy liquidation the prior week that caused the Fed to begin open-market purchases of agency discount notes. After the initial US$8 billion discount note pass by the Fed on September 19, an additional US$2 billion was bought in the latest week in an operation late in Tuesday’s trading session as agency market debt was having its worst problems Tuesday and Wednesday and then an additional US$4.5 billion late Friday as things were stabilizing. If conditions in a section of the money market that from a credit perspective is as effectively as risk-free as Treasuries saw such stress during the week, clearly other paper considered relatively higher risk was under even more strain. Even essentially risk-free state money market debt was seeing yields surging. For example, the SEC yield on the Vanguard New York Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund had risen to 5.00% Thursday from 2.76% at the end of prior week and 1.56% two weeks back. Relatively higher-risk commercial paper market came under a lot of strain. According to Fed data, through Thursday 83% of the week’s CP issuance had been with maturities of 1-4 days, about the same as the prior week, but up from 62% two weeks ago. There was so little term activity in some sectors of the CP market on Monday that the Fed was not able to provide a complete list of interest rates for the day. According to the Fed, yields on lower-rated A2/P2 non-financial CP remained sharply elevated at an average 5.50% for 30-day paper on Thursday and 6.00% for 90-day, enormous spreads over much calmer conditions for AA-rated non-financial paper, which was yielding 1.93% for 30-day and 2.23% for 90-day. Somewhat similar conditions prevailed in the financial sector, though the Fed’s introduction of the ‘asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility’ appeared to be providing substantial support to ABCP. According to the Fed’s figures, the average rate on Thursday was 3.14% for 30-day AA financial CP and 2.82% for 90-day. For ABCP, the average rates were 3.72% and 3.80%, respectively. Using the Fed’s facility, commercial banks had bought US$73 billion of ABCP from money market mutual funds as of Wednesday using non-recourse loans (meaning participating banks had no credit risk from the purchases) from the Fed at the discount rate, which represented 10% of the entire ABCP market and nearly a third of money market mutual fund holdings of ABCP. The interbank lending market was in turmoil at week-end, though the market was at least pricing that the situation would improve somewhat – though remain at badly stressed levels – over coming months. Hopefully, we will start to see some positive movement in the coming week once what has been a very rough quarter-end balance sheet squeeze is past. 3-month Libor surged another 55bp on the week to 3.76%, having now risen nearly 100bp in the past two weeks as the market, at the same time, has moved increasingly to price in imminent Fed rate cuts (or at least a continuation of the unofficial easing that has been in place recently, with fed funds averaging well below the 2% target over the past week). As a result, the 3-month Libor/3-month OIS spread – in our view, the best real-time gauge of bank balance sheet strains – spiked more than 80bp over the past week to an all-time high 208bp, which was nearly double the previous all-time high seen before this recent turmoil. Libor rates continue to be officially posted every day and remain key benchmark rates across a variety of floating-rate loans and bonds and swaps markets, so this back-up in rates has real and potentially substantial negative economic implications. But as far as a gauge of actual interbank lending, 3-month Libor is almost purely theoretical at this point, since there is almost no actual term interbank lending occurring. Indeed, the Fed is increasingly becoming the one of the only reliable sources of term money for financial institutions (the Home Loan Banks remain another key funding source), with the Fed’s balance sheet expanding by 22% in week through Wednesday – about matching the growth over the prior four years through the end of the prior week – as loans through a variety and growing list of programs surged. And if banks aren’t even willing to lend to each other for a few months at such extraordinary spreads over their expected overnight funding costs, the implications for their willingness to make loans to businesses and consumers are clear and frightening. There was one modest positive amid this turmoil, though, as the market did move late in the week to price a decent improvement in Libor/OIS spreads on a forward basis – though to still extremely high levels at least through the next year. After getting crushed through the first part of the week, the Dec 08 eurodollar futures contract reversed course Thursday and Friday to end the week with a 7.5bp sell-off to 3.30%. With substantially more Fed easing priced over the overlapping period – the January fed funds contract surged 26bp to 1.65% – the forward Libor/OIS spread to mid-December still jumped about 35bp on the week to near 165bp, but at least came down from Wednesday’s peaks above 190bp and was a good bit below spot levels. Even at such a high absolute level, it could be taken as a somewhat hopeful sign that the forward Libor/OIS spread to December is priced more than 40bp below spot levels, considering that balance sheet pressures, which have been so bad over this quarter-end, have been a major source of market anxiety for some time. The Mar 09 eurodollar contract gained 4.5bp on the week to 2.935% and the Jun 09 contract lost 4.5bp to 3.06%, which caused the forward Libor/OIS spreads to those dates to rise about 18bp to around 115bp and 100bp, but these also at least marked decent improvements from Wednesday’s extremes. Financing markets weren’t in nearly as bad shape as interbank or money markets – certainly at least not for collateral with recognizable prices like Treasuries, agencies and equities; funding less liquid assets is much more problematic – but was also strained. The average overnight Treasury general collateral repo rate averaged 0.94% Friday (but was trading at 0% at the end of the day) after averaging as low as 0.25% Wednesday. Agencies on Friday averaged 1.25% overnight and mortgages 1.50%, as spreads versus Treasuries came in quite a bit with help from the TSLF and all the T-bill supply. For a price, term repo could get done for high-quality collateral, but liquidity in term repo was thin. Almost all of the TSLF options the Fed sold covering the September 25 to October 2 period for the broad schedule 2 collateral were of course exercised given this situation, and it was actually a bit of a mystery why US$2 billion of the US$49 billion in options that were written weren’t exercised. Risk markets ended modestly softer on the week. Depending on your point of view, at various points through the week equity and credit markets could have been seen as either being oblivious to the breakdown in the short-term markets and whistling past the graveyard, or, alternatively, being wisely more forward-looking and rightly relatively calm about the situation in the belief that the financial support plan would settle markets down. The S&P 500 lost 3.3% on the week. Financials took a significant hit after their huge prior rebound, with the BKX banks stock index off 11%, but a lot of weakness was also seen in cyclicals as global growth worries continued. In late trading Friday, the investment grade CDX index was only a relatively muted 11bp wider on the week at 162bp. The high yield index was 58bp wider at 777bp through Thursday’s close, but the index was trading up slightly late Friday. If there wasn’t enough turmoil to worry about already, credit investors are going to have to deal with rolling into the new series 11 CDX indices in the upcoming week. The subprime ABX and commercial mortgage CMBX markets, which would seem to be among the most direct beneficiaries of the support plan, were able to extend to varying degrees the big rallies that greeted initial news of the plan. The AAA ABX index gained another 3.81 points on the week to 52.29 and the AA 1.15 points to 11.92. Additional upside in the CMBX market in the latest week was a lot smaller (though the rally the prior week was bigger), with the AAA index tightening 2bp to 149bp, the junior AAA 5bp to 441bp, and AA 25bp to 595bp. Investors were not paying much attention to economic data during the week, but a fairly light calendar was uniformly bad. Most notable was a very weak durable goods report that pointed to a substantial drop in equipment investment in 3Q. Also incorporating upside in durable goods inventories and a smaller expected contribution from net exports, we cut our 3Q GDP forecast to 0.0% from +1.0%. This would come after a surprising downward revision to 2Q to +2.8%. Though this was still a superficially solid result, the upside was entirely attributable to an enormous positive contribution from net exports; the domestic economy contracted slightly in 2Q. We see consumption falling 1.2%, business investment 6% and residential investment 14% in 3Q at this point, so even if overall GDP growth manages to stay out of negative territory temporarily, the private domestic economy is likely to post a substantial contraction. Meanwhile, home sales, especially for newly built homes, were down in August as mortgage rates spiked, and weakness in regional manufacturing surveys and jobless claims led us to cut our ISM forecast to 49.5 from 50.0 and employment forecast to -150,000 from -125,000. Durable goods orders plunged 4.5% in August. In line with company data, there was a sharp drop in aircraft bookings, but underlying orders also showed major weakness. Non-defense capital goods ex aircraft orders – the key core gauge of business capital spending – fell 2.0% after a much lower revised gain in July of just 0.4% versus the initially reported jump of +2.5%. August weakness was driven by a plunge in machinery orders. Core capital goods shipments were also soft, plunging 1.7% in August after a much lower revised gain in July (+0.4% versus +1.6%), pointing to a substantial drop in business investment in equipment and software in 3Q. We see overall business investment falling 6% in 3Q and the equipment and software component 9%. Inventories became more bloated, rising 0.7% in August, lifting the inventory/sales ratio to a seven-year high. This provided a partial offset to the weakness in investment, as we now see inventories adding 1.2pp to 3Q growth instead of +0.9pp. When we updated our August trade balance forecast, we reduced our forecast for the positive contribution from net exports to 3Q GDP to +0.8pp from +1.3pp. Taken together, these various adjustments reduced our overall GDP forecast a point to 0.0%. Home sales results were weak, though much more so for new than existing homes. Existing home sales fell 2.2% in August to a 4.91 million unit annual rate, extending what has been a roughly stable trend since late last year. Single-family home sales fell 1.4% to 4.35 million and have been similarly little changed on net since late 2007, while condo sales plunged 8.2% to 560,000, reversing what had been a modest recent rebound. The number of homes available for sale plunged 7.0%, dropping the months’ supply to 10.4 months. This is still way above more normal levels near six months and only modestly improved from the April peak of 11.2 months. Meanwhile, new home sales plunged 11.5% in August to a 460,000 unit annual rate, a low since 1991. This drop ended what had also been a recent stabilizing trend in these figures, though of shorter duration than for existing homes. Weakness was concentrated in the Northeast and West, with sales in the West plummeting to a 27-year low. Homes available for sale fell 4.4%, but with the sales pace declining much more, the months’ supply of unsold new homes jumped to 10.9 months from 10.3, just below the March peak of 11.2 months and way above a more normal level near six months. It’s possible that the spike in mortgage rates over the summer that has since been reversed may have contributed to this plunge in sales (though, if so, it apparently didn’t impact existing home sales nearly as much), so activity may rebound somewhat in coming months. Clearly market focus going in to the upcoming week will be the status of the financial system bailout bill and the details of the actual bill if it passes, as it still seems likely to in some form. If a bill passes, major attention will likely be on the specific language regarding equity warrant grants to the federal government by participating companies to judge how widespread participation in the plan might be. Pressures on short-term markets are unlikely to see meaningful improvement and could worsen until we, at least, get through quarter-end on Tuesday. So it will be very important to track developments in money, interbank and financing markets once we do get past September 30 to see if things start to function more normally, as severe quarter-end financial sector balance sheet pressures hopefully ease. Watch for some potential sticker shock Monday, though, as the 3-month Libor setting will cover the year-end turn for the first time and will likely set even higher as a result. If this September quarter-end winds up being an early warning for year-end, things could get very ugly in December. There is a lot of key economic data out in the coming week, but investors may not be ready yet to shift much focus back towards the rapidly deteriorating real economy. Data releases due out include personal income and spending Monday, Conference Board consumer confidence Tuesday, manufacturing ISM, construction spending and motor vehicle sales Wednesday, factory orders Thursday, and the employment report and non-manufacturing ISM Friday: * We forecast a 0.4% rise in August personal income and a 0.3% increase in spending. Distortions related to the tax stimulus rebate checks have contributed to some wild gyrations in income over the past several months. But these effects should be largely behind us at this point – especially with respect to the accounting for pre-tax income. The employment report showed a decline in payrolls combined with a slightly above-trend rise in wage rates, which points to a modest rise in overall income. A similar gain is expected in consumption, with the retail sales report showing an outright decline in retail control that should be more than offset by a rebound in motor vehicle sales. Finally, the core PCE price index is expected to be up 0.25%, with the year-on-year rate ticking up to +2.5%. * We expect the September ISM to fall to 49.5. Weak results from the Kansas City and Richmond Fed surveys after more mixed data from the Empire and Philly regional reports led us to cut our preliminary estimate. We now look for the national ISM to fall half a point from the 49.9 reading seen in August. A slowing global economy should lead to further gradual moderation in factory activity, but this effect should take some time to play out. Hurricane-related distortions may contribute to some elevation in vendor deliveries and boost the composite index this month relative to greater deterioration expected in other key components. Finally, the price index should continue its rapid retreat from the cycle peak seen back in June. * We look for a 1.1% decline in August construction spending. The housing starts data point to a continuation of the slide in residential activity. Meanwhile, the non-residential category finally showed some softening in July after registering a consistent string of upside surprises in prior months. We expect the latest weakening to continue in August. Also, the public category appears to be due for a pullback, given the deteriorating finances of state and local governments. * Industry reports indicate that motor vehicle sales held little changed in September at a 13.6 million unit annual rate after stepped up incentives helped spark a decent rebound in August (though to a still abysmal level) from the 16-year low sales pace hit in July. * The plunge in the durables component and a likely sizable price-related drop in non-durables should lead to a 3.5% fall in overall factory orders in August, which would be the biggest decline in a year. * We forecast a 150,000 decline in September non-farm payrolls. The combined effects of some underlying deterioration in labor market conditions and the distortions related to the hurricane season are expected to contribute to a steeper decline in payrolls than seen in recent months. Although the jobless claims data have been subject to considerable statistical noise in recent weeks, there does appear to have been some noticeable upward drift of late. Moreover, we are assuming a hurricane effect of -50,000 in September. The unemployment rate has moved higher in recent months, consistent with the loss of jobs seen in the more reliable payroll data. However, the 0.4 percentage point spike in the jobless rate last month seemed to overstate things a bit, so we look for a temporary partial retracement in September to 6.0% from 6.1%. Finally, the lagged effect of the recent rise in the federal minimum wage should provide some mild impetus for average hourly earnings, while hurricane effects could help push the average workweek a bit lower.
October 01, 2008
Renaissance Capital Ukraine Last week in the Ukrainian debt market
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell. Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
Fitch Ratings Criteria for Rating RMBS
UkrSibbank Fixed Income Snapshot - abundant domestic liquidity to decline as dollar deficit looms, UAH will continue to stay under pressure
Dragon Capital WEEKLY OVERVIEW. September 22-26, 2008. UKRAINIAN BONDS. Spreads widen on Fitch downgrade
Fitch Ratings State support mitigates significant near‐term risks for Russian banks
FC URALSIB First-tier price consolidation-Retail banking bonds oversold-Issuers prepare for primary placements.Comments:Sibirtelecom, Bank Souz
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: High excessive liquidity but low real operations on MM/Fears of Prominvestbank’s bankruptcy stalled the money market
ICU Daily Insight. Markets weaken as central bank extends lifeline to embattled Prominvestbank
ING Wholesale Banking Russia
CIS Fixed Income Daily
-Russia: Moody’s has affirmed its ‘positive’ outlook on sovereign debt
-Ukraine: Fears of Prominvestbank’s bankruptcy stalled the money market
September 30, 2008
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell. Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
Erste Group Emerging markets weekly
KIT Finance Investment Bank FIXED INCOME WEEKLY - 39, 2008
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: High liquidity will not allow O/N rates to increase significantly today/State debt reduced by 1.4% MoM in August
ICU Daily Insight. Ukraine\'s markets go in line with the global trend; however, positive news in the banking sector
ING Wholesale Banking Russia
CIS Fixed Income Daily
-Government to give economy US$50bn to refinance external debt: a discriminating, but positive move
-Ukraine: State debt reduced by 1.4% MoM in August
September 29, 2008
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell. Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
ICU Daily Insight. Mixed results seen in local markets last Friday
FC URALSIB No end to selling in sight-S&P lowers Moscow Region’s credit rating outlook to “negative”-Signs of a deterioration on the syndicated loan market.Comments:Marta, Gross
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: Spot returned inside currency band
September 26, 2008
UkrSibbank Fixed Income Snapshot - UEFA makes positive decision on Ukraine and Poland
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