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  • Alfa Bank
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November 12, 2014
Probusinessbank Ежедневный обзор рынка акций. 12 ноября 2014 г.
Description
На сырьевом рынке продолжается снижение нефтяных котировок, что в утренние часы будет способствовать продолжению снижения российских индексов. Одним из основных факторов изменений на рынке остаются валютные колебания. В течение дня новостной фон ожидается разнополярный. Поддержку рынку могут оказать заявления Германии об отсутствии намерений ужесточать антироссийские санкции, чего опасаются инвесторы по итогам встречи министров ЕС 17 ноября. В течение дня ожидается публикация ряда докладов по мировому энергетическому сектору и прогнозов по рынку нефти от ОПЕК и МЭА США, что может вызвать колебания нефтяных котировок. Кроме того, данные по промпроизводству ЕС, скорее всего, повлияют на общий внешний фон.
Veles Capital Котировки векселей ООО «ИК ВЕЛЕС Капитал» на 12 ноября 2014 г.
November 11, 2014
Priorbank Экономическое обозрение выпуск №41 (520)
NORD-CAPITAL Итоги соревнований по прыжкам в высоту при опущенных планках
NORD-CAPITAL Итоги соревнований по прыжкам в высоту при опущенных планках
NORD-CAPITAL Итоги соревнований по прыжкам в высоту при опущенных планках
JAZZ CAPITAL Ежедневный обзор рынков 11.11.2014
Probusinessbank Ежедневный комментарий по рынку облигаций 11 ноября 2014 г.
Description
Вчера на российском рынке облигаций бумаги внешнего и внутреннего долга показали существенный рост. Укрепление рубля и стабилизация цен на нефть оказали  поддержку долговым активам. Рост отечественной валюты был вызван заявлением ЦБ РФ об отмене бивалютного коридора и перехода к плавающему курсу. В связи с этим, регулятор больше не намерен использовать золотовалютные резервы для поддержания рубля, хотя и готов выходить с интервенцией при возникновении спекулятивного фактора. По итогам сессии суверенные еврооблигации отыграли падение прошлой недели. На рынке ОФЗ также превалировали покупатели,  несмотря на существенный дисконт в доходностях относительно вмененных ставок NDF. На глобальных площадках активность в защитных бумагах была минимальной, хотя в моменте мы наблюдали высокий спрос. Мы полагаем,  инвесторы  находились в ожидании квартальных финансовых отчетностей, частности, Carlsberg. Сегодня интерес к российским долговым бумагам, вероятно, будет сохранен. Участники рынка осторожно продолжат покупки, ориентируясь на движение рубля. Дополнительную поддержку отечественной валюте может оказать решение регулятора, который планирует временно ограничить предоставление рублевой ликвидности. Между тем, нефтяные котировки марки Brent снизились до 82 долл./барр., но существенного давления на рубль мы не ожидаем.   Исходя из вышеперечисленного, суверенные еврооблигации внутридня могут показывать смешенные результаты. На рынке внутреннего долга игроки, возможно, осуществят продажи в виду роста межбанковских ставок.
UFS IC APEC positively affects yield of bonds. CBM’s Eurobonds have an idea. Comment: CBM.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The APEC summit is in session in Beijing. ·    The bank of Russia decided to allow the ruble to float freely, having abolished the currency corridor. ·    The Central Bank of Russia restricts the provision of ruble liquidity for purchase of the foreign currency.   Debt Market ·    Today the stock exchanges are closed due to Veterans Day in the USA, as well as in France. We expect the yield of the sovereign and corporate Russian Eurobonds to decline. We suppose that NLMKRU-18 is oversold amid the news on good financial results, we recommend investors to buy this issue.   Comments ·    Fitch affirmed the rating of Credit Bank of Moscow at 'BB' with a stable outlook last Friday. The rating of the subordinated debt is set at 'BB-'. Owing to the strong financial results for 1H 2014 we note that currently Z-spread between CRBKMO-18sub and CRBKMO-18 widened to a historic high of 407 b. p. We expect the spread to narrow from 407 to 355 b. p. We recommend investors to buy CRBKMO-18sub.
Credi Agrikol Bank (Ukraine) Ukraine: Monthly Market Overview (October 2014)
Priorbank Экономическое обозрение выпуск №40 (519)
FactEntry Halcon a Loser
ICU Bond Market Insight-High risks and negative anticipations
Erste Group CEE Fixed Income Daily
Risk Management Institute

RMI Quarterly Credit Report: Q3 2014

Description
The Risk Management Institute’s Quarterly Credit Report (QCR) for Q3 2014. The QCR provides analysis of the credit outlook and trends across 70 of the economies covered by RMI’s Credit Rating Initiative (CRI). The CRI’s probabilities of default are given in the appendix, along with macroeconomic and sovereign credit risk indicators. This edition of the QCR provides in-depth credit analysis for the following economies: China Germany India Indonesia Korea Singapore  Malaysia   United Kingdom
Art Capital Ежедневный обзор фондового рынка Украины
Risk Management Institute Weekly Credit Brief (Nov 04 - Nov 10)
Description
The Weekly Credit Brief (WCB) provides summaries of significant credit-related events that occurred around the globe in the latest week. This week's WCB includes the following stories: Story of the Week: Genworth’s rating falls into junk territory after poor earnings
Cbonds EM Cbonds EM Monthly Newsletter, October 2014
Description
Cbonds EM Monthly Newsletter, October 2014
Kyrgiz Stocks Exchange Финансовый рынок.KG № 255
Eavex Capital Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
ICU Daily Insight-FUIB to restructure its Eurobonds
Eavex Capital Обзор рынка 11 ноября 2014 г.
Eavex Capital Market Monitor November 11, 2014
AK BARS Bank АК БАРС Финанс. Ежедневный обзор долгового рынка.
FPB Bank Новости долговых и денежных рынков. Ежедневный обзор
Commerzbank EMEA Update Daily
Description
Russia (+) • A final (in our view, symbolic) step was taken yesterday by the CBR to break from years of band policy. This leaves the central bank with ad-hoc FX intervention as the most effective tool in a policy that will at first be a managed float in order to prevent excess volatility and further RUB weakness. • At the same time, the CBR pushed back its 4% inflation target from end-2016 to end-2017, which provides for a relief as it reduces some of the FX intervention pressure on the central bank that is needed to help reach the target. And, the central bank mentioned the possibility of restricting RUB liquidity if need be to reduce the amount of RUB available for banks to purchase FX. • The CBR also came up with scenarios that sanctions may stay until end-2017 (according to media), which would essentially lead to zero growth. A very difficult backdrop although we continue to expect the CBR to intervene to protect the RUB if it weakens again from current levels. We also continue to see "fair value" at below USD-RUB 40.0 at current oil prices. Hungary (+) • EconMin Varga announced "2nd phase" details of the upcoming FX loan conversion plan; draft to be discussed by the cabinet on 13 Nov before submission to parliament on Friday. The highlights are: 1) FX mortgage loans will be converted to forint using 7 Nov spot exchange rates (CHF-HUF 256.6 and EUR-HUF 309), 2) Most FX loans are likely to be converted; NBH calculates that outstanding retail FX loans will total EUR 8bn at the time of conversion; 3) Borrowers can opt out by applying within 30days of publication of the law, but they would have to satisfy certain criteria to be exempt; the default option will be for all outstanding loans to be converted; 4) NBH will provide upto EUR 9bn from its reserves to banks for the conversion; banks will, however, have to convert these EUR to the currency of the loans (85% CHF; this was cited to pressure the EUR-CHF exchange rate downwards yesterday); 5) Minister Varga signalled that the timeframe would be H1 2015, most probably early H1. • With this in mind, NBH already held its first EUR-HUF auction yesterday: commercial banks submitted total bids for EUR 7.8bn; NBH accepted all bids and announced that such tenders will ensure an orderly conversion without any undue pressure on the forint; the next tender will be held today. • Bottomline: The govt and CB have taken pains to ensure that the conversion of FX loans will be exchange rate neutral. This requires two major elements: a) That the conversion rate is the market rate, and b) The bunched up demand for FX is kept off the market. Both criteria are fulfilled by the legislation. What is more, banks will not bear much additional cost beyond the c.HUF945mn they lost during the "first phase" (which featured compensating borrowers for unfair charges and unilateral rate increases); on the other hand, Hungary's external debt/GDP ratio will be down some 4-5pp by end-2015, which would count as a major improvement in risk profile. Czech Republic (=) • CPI inflation for Oct held at 0.7%, slightly higher than the market consensus of 0.6%, but 0.1pp lower than CNB's Oct forecast. Food and fuel prices added c.16pp to Oct headline inflation, and underlying inflation remains stable at near-zero (well below target). CNB cut its end-2015 inflation forecast from 2% to 1.5% in the latest Inflation Report, and the data are consistent with CNB's view of continued low inflation (which is also consistent with its intention of maintaining FX intervention until Q1 2016). Poland (=) • Prominent MPC doves have remarked in recent days that rates are already low enough in Poland: this makes it likely that rates will be on hold for the time being until we witness the next leg in terms of weaker Eurozone data or QE from ECB. We still think that rates will be lowered again from here during H1 2015. Turkey (=) • Industrial output was up a sluggish 2.5%YoY (calendar-adj) in Sept vs. 5.2% increase in Aug. The crucial capital goods and consumer durables segments drove the deceleration; despite the slowdown, the Q3 average IP growth rate works out to slightly better than the Q2 average, implying that GDP growth is likely to slightly recover too. Israel (+) • Business confidence continued to improve for the second month in Oct, reaching positive territory for the first time since Jun; while consumer confidence remained flat. Overall, sentiment, which began to improve after Gaza operations finished, continues to recover. • Latest MPC mins reveal a unanimous decision in Nov to hold rates unchanged at 0.25%. The CB is considering all monetary policy tools, including lowering the policy rate one more time, and QE measures, as ex-housing CPI is descending deeper into deflation. • The cabinet approved higher tax rates on extraction companies beginning 2017 (excluding oil and gas extraction); the change is based on recommendations of a govt committee, and will hit the chemicals industry in particular. • Environmental Protection Minister, Peretz, resigned from the cabinet on broadbased disagreement with Budget and govt policies; we view this as an isolated incident, not a broader political crisis. South Africa (-) • Moody's followed up its recent sovereign downgrade of South Africa by cutting parastatal Eskom to Ba1 (retaining stable outlook), which now increases the probability that S&P or Fitch might move ratings too. This will likely make it more challenging for Eskom to raise the ZAR 250bn funds it needs to complete its current investment programme.
Nordea FI Eye-Opener: Floating around
Commerzbank Asia Daily Update
Description
North Asia ** China: President Xi reiterates China is shifting to the “new normal” of growth ** China: Total social financing data due this week ** South Korea and China signed MOU for free trade agreement CHINA: President Xi Jinping reiterated that China is shifting to the “new normal” of growth and keep medium, high growth in the future. He said that despite a slower growth rate, the quality of economy will improve due to reforms. “Even a growth rate of about 7 per cent will put China among the top performers in the world in terms of both speed and size,” President Xi added. “Some worry whether China’s growth rate will slow down further, or whether China can overcome the obstacles. Risks are indeed there but they’re not that scary.” - We may get October total social financing data today. The total social financing is expected to increase by around CNY880bn, down from a revised CNY1050bn the month prior. The market expects new yuan loans to scale back to CNY630bn from CNY857bn previously while shadow banking component likely remained stable at CNY250bn. SOUTH KOREA: South Korea and China reached in-principal free trade agreement yesterday during the APEC summit. South Korea will remove tariffs for USD8.7bn of annual exports immediately. Tariffs reduction will increase to an annual USD45.8bn worth of exports in the next ten years. The agreement aims to increase bilateral trading volume to USD300bn by 2015. China is South Korea’s largest trading partner with the total bilateral trading volume at USD266bn in 2013. South/Southeast Asia ** India: October trade today, exports to post modest a gain but up for 7th consecutive month ** Singapore: SGD NEER holds around +0.3% above the mid-point ** Malaysia: September IP today ahead of Q3 GDP this Friday INDIA: We get October trade numbers today where exports are expected to remain positive. A modest gain is seen around the low 3% y/y pace but encouragingly, it will represent the 7th consecutive month of expansion. In other news, the Junior Finance Minister Jayant Sinha said yesterday that the government aims to see growth rebound to the 7-8% pace for fiscal year 2016-2017. For FY2014-15, we are looking at 5.8% and 6.2% for FY2015-16. The 7-8% pace is indeed optimistic and on the high side of expectations. It will entail a number of factors working in India’s favour including a stronger global recovery, stronger domestic investment spending, improved FDI, fiscal and tax reforms, and aided by other reform initiatives. For USD-INR, it gapped down at the open yesterday from 61.63 to 61.45 and held within a narrow range of 61.45-61.55 for the rest of the session. We continue to look for the 61-62 range near term. SINGAPORE: There’s not much on the calendar this week, only retail sale son Friday. USD-SGD rose slightly from the 1.2880 low in Asia to close around 1.2910. For the SGD NEER, we estimate it is at +0.3% above the mid-point for USD-SGD at 1.2920, USD-MYR at 3.3390, and USD-CNY at 6.1200. MALAYSIA: We get September industrial production today, seen around 5.5% y/y from 6.5% previously. It should continue to show a modest expansion. The key release this week will be Friday’s Q3 GDP which is expected to moderate from the brisk 6.3% pace in H1 but still at a healthy 5.6% y/y or so. For USD-MYR, it held within a narrow range of 3.3250-3.3330 after gapping down at the open yesterday. It has opened higher today on the firmer USD backdrop to 3.3400. It is at the upper end of the 3.30-3.35 range and our bias remains to the upside. A break above 3.35 could see it settle within a new range of 3.35-3.40.
Spread Research EHY & EM News
Description
1. ALLIANCE AUTOMOTIVE: S&P assigns B+ rating; outlook stable (10/11) 2. ALLIANCE AUTOMOTIVE: Moodys assigns B1 rating; outlook stable (10/11) 3. CAMPOFRIO: S&P upgrades to BB+; outlook stable (10/11) 4. EMPRESAS ICA to build MXN 1.1bn centre in Mexico (10/11) 5. EUROPCAR faces regulatory action from Australia (10/11) 6. INTRALOT: 3Q14 Results at a glance (10/11) 7. SAS: traffic figures October 2014 (10/11) 8. SEADRILL delays announced transaction with Rosneft (10/11)
Probusinessbank Ежедневный комментарий по рынку облигаций 11 ноября 2014 г.
Description
Вчера на российском рынке облигаций бумаги внешнего и внутреннего долга показали существенный рост. Укрепление рубля и стабилизация цен на нефть оказали  поддержку долговым активам. Рост отечественной валюты был вызван заявлением ЦБ РФ об отмене бивалютного коридора и перехода к плавающему курсу. В связи с этим, регулятор больше не намерен использовать золотовалютные резервы для поддержания рубля, хотя и готов выходить с интервенцией при возникновении спекулятивного фактора. По итогам сессии суверенные еврооблигации отыграли падение прошлой недели. На рынке ОФЗ также превалировали покупатели,  несмотря на существенный дисконт в доходностях относительно вмененных ставок NDF. На глобальных площадках активность в защитных бумагах была минимальной, хотя в моменте мы наблюдали высокий спрос. Мы полагаем,  инвесторы  находились в ожидании квартальных финансовых отчетностей, частности, Carlsberg. Сегодня интерес к российским долговым бумагам, вероятно, будет сохранен. Участники рынка осторожно продолжат покупки, ориентируясь на движение рубля. Дополнительную поддержку отечественной валюте может оказать решение регулятора, который планирует временно ограничить предоставление рублевой ликвидности. Между тем, нефтяные котировки марки Brent снизились до 82 долл./барр., но существенного давления на рубль мы не ожидаем.   Исходя из вышеперечисленного, суверенные еврооблигации внутридня могут показывать смешенные результаты. На рынке внутреннего долга игроки, возможно, осуществят продажи в виду роста межбанковских ставок.
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