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Source Research
March 23, 2009
ING Wholesale Banking Russia CIS Fixed-Income Daily: - Shuvalov reiterates government will not bail out external borrowers -7th Continent: bond restructuring still likely -Lviv wants to borrow UAH300m for Euro-2012
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bi-Weekly Capital Markets update - March 22, 2009
March 20, 2009
Commerzbank EMEA Strategy Bi-Weekly
The spread resilience in EM debt (EMBIG now under 660bp spread) in a still-troubled global economic scenario makes us all wonder how long is this temporary ‘feel-good factor’ on risky asset classes going to last. The lack of debt deals in the EM space is a strong reminder that the shocks in the financial system are still dramatically hampering any solid short-term recovery on banks’ willingness to extend exposure to EM credits. Going forward, we still foresee space for debt deals on the sovereign front, as Israel is expected to print the second deal of the month (following the Digicel 2014 bond deal. All in all, the alluring performance on EM CDS relative cross-over credits (Itraxx five-cross-over rallied by only 47bp since 5 March, versus 100bp-plus rallies on credits such as Russia, Turkey and Gazprom) might continue for a while as the average basis on the EM.CDX universe still trades at relatively high levels (see chart below). The fundamental position in the markets (carried over for at least six months) is still long cash bonds (and unable or unwilling to sell given market pricing and liquidity conditions) and long protection. That is why the ‘excessive’ basis. On Russia, we continue to watch the rally on cross-currency swaps as two-year rates are now trying to break the 17% barrier. The more stability on RUB/basket quotes the stronger the rally on cross-currency swaps, which basically suggest significant improvement on RUB hedging costs. This is actually happening in tandem with the dis-inversion of the Russian CDS curve, as two-year CDS prices rally faster and stronger if compared to the five-year sector. Relative spreads two-year/five-year now stand at 130-140bp, coming from a peak of 300bp in January. On Ukraine, the decision to bring Rodovid Bank into state administration has brought the number of banks operating under such a restriction to 10 in total, which include: Nadra Bank, Kiev Bank, Natsionalniy Kredit, Ukrprombank, Prychornomorsky Bank, Zahidinkombank, Odessa Bank, Trans Bank, Rodovid Bank and Big Enerhia. The wave of failure on Ukrainian banks does not surprise us at all. See our trip notes from November last year, where we highlighted the government’s lack of resources and unwillingness to come to the rescue of every single troubled financial institution in the country. There will be other mid-size and small banks to go under administration over the coming months. Away from the banking system, it seems that the markets are finally waking to the fact that Ukrainian sovereign risk (despite the erratic dynamics) is most likely not defaulting in 2009. This is pushing bonds such as Ukraine 09s and UkrExImbank 09s up, and also supporting the bid on the rest of the Ukrainian sovereign curve (up by 3-5 points in price over the last 72 hours).
ICU Daily Insight-Latest external debt data under scrutiny
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell-Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: Private external debt declined by 7.2% QoQ over 4Q08
Phoenix Capital Alfa Bank Ukraine: In the same boat as its shareholders
ING Wholesale Banking Russia
CIS Fixed Income Daily
-CBR seen restraining strengthening rouble
-February real sector indicators point to a continuing slowdown
March 19, 2009
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell-Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
ICU Daily Insight-FX and equities markets snapshot
UkrSibbank Fixed Income Snapshot - Market Update
GLOBAL: The rally in fixed income goes on, strongly supported by Fed’s decision to expand its balance sheet and improved commodities outlook. Over the last week key Ukrainian benchmarks delivered returns that could be compared to equity. Ukraine-09 climbed up from 75 to 83 (percent of par) while Ukraine-13 jumped from 36 to 48. Positive sentiment also spread to banking and corporate sector, with some trading being restored on smaller and riskier issuers. Our view: the trend is becoming oversubscribed on the sovereigns while some of corporate notes do look extremely cheap. MACRO: A 13% duty on non-critical import effective from Mar 6 for the next 6 months has been abolished (as we supposed in our Snapshot “Target auctions prove to be efficient”) for all goods except for cars and refrigerators. We remind that some important constituents of consumer basket such as meat (its domestic production is plunging), fish, fruits, clothes were subject to this duty. Our view: we expect no impact on imports as it had already fallen by 56% y/y as far back as in Jan well in advance the regulation was adopted. The only effect may be seen in CPI level in Mar, still we believe it would be moderate as the duty was in force for only two weeks. We can’t but mention the remaining duty for refrigerators and cars gives a matter for WTO claims to Ukraine. BANKING: NBU announced yesterday that it would recommend the government to recapitalize Nadra, Ukrpombank ans Rodovid banks. Nadra and Ukrprombank stated their need for UAH5bn and UAH3.5-7 bn accordingly while Rodovid planned additional stock issue on UAH1.1 bn (we estimate the bank’s needs should get to UAH2 bn at least). In addition to the banks recommended by NBU three other institutions (Finance & Credit Bank, Ukrgazbank and Imex Bank) have declared their plans to file for state recap.
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: Current account deficit deteriorates to 7.2% of GDP over 2008/Banks lined up for state recapitalisation
Troika Dialog Ukraine Ukraine Market Daily. March 19, 2009
ING Wholesale Banking Russia
CIS Fixed Income Daily
-HCFB: feedback on 2008 results and management call
-GAZ: Sberbank and government support restructuring instead of bankruptcy
March 18, 2009
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell-Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
ICU Daily Insight-FX and equities at a glance
Troika Dialog Ukraine Ukraine Market Daily. March 18, 2009
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot:NBU reminds on administrative control on the rate/Parliament takes a firm step towards an IMF loan/Estimated GDP over Jan-Feb declined 26.4% YoY
ING Wholesale Banking Russia
CIS Fixed income Daily
-S&P reports on Russia’s oil and gas sector
-Ukraine: Estimated GDP over January-February declined by 26.4% YoY
March 17, 2009
ICU Daily Insight-Industrial production in February: disheartening figures
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Emerging EMEA macro weekly
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Russian, Kazakh, Ukrainian and Georgian Eurobond market updates, March 17 2009
Troika Dialog Ukraine Ukraine Market Daily. March 17, 2009
ING Wholesale Banking Russia
CIS Fixed Income Daily
-Russia: President Medvedev sounds some supportive words for corporates
-Ukraine: Industrial production grows by 5.4% MoM in February
March 16, 2009
ICU The PFTS Closing Bell-Daily results of bond and equity trading on the PFTS
ICU Daily Insight-FX and equities at a glance
UkrSibbank Fixed Income Snapshot - Market Update
BANKING: NBU has introduced temporary administration in Rodovid bank ranking #20 by assets size after the institution asked for the government bailout. The moratorium on payments to creditors will last six months and is imposed to “protect depositors and creditors along with boosting bank’s liquidity”, Rodovid announced in its statement. According to the statement, the provisional administration is prerequisite for joint Istil Group and the government participation in Rodovid’s recap. Our view: We expect Rodovid to be among the first to go through the state recap as it shares about 2% of the system deposits and involves Istil Group potential participation in the deal. The recap may push Rodovid into the Top-10 most capitalized lenders thus considerably lowering the banking system strain. FX&MM: Liquidity has expanded to the highest level since Jan, 2009 up to UAH19.5 bn and pushed Kievprime O/N below 20%. Such considerable boost may be attributed to budget payments as the treasury account shrank by UAH2.6 bn within Feb 10-13 down to the record low UAH1.4 bn. Our view: The simultaneous FX and MM stabilization suggests lowering of devaluation expectations along with the government concessions in talk with the IMF. The potential NBU’s emission aimed at the state budget support may pose a threat to FX fragile stability. At the same time the government would be bound by its refusal from monetary budget financing stated in its letter to the IMF. CORP: Raiffeisen Bank Aval has redeemed USD150 mn out of the UAH 500 mn syndicated loan. Earlier, the bank has repaid USD250 mn. Altogether, Raiffeisen Bank Aval discharged USD400 mn. The bank schedules to redeem the loan on Apr, 19. The net profit of Raiffeisen Bank Aval in 2008 was UAH527 mn, 10% less than a year before. As of 01.01.09, the bank’s total assets grew 1.5 times to UAH65 bn, credit portfolio rose 1.5 times y/y (UAH54.7 bn), loans to legal entities grew by 52% y/y (UAH29.1 bn), loans to individuals increased by 44% y/y (UAH25.5 bn). A 95.93% stake in the bank belongs to the Austrian Raiffeisen International Bank Holding AG.
Troika Dialog Ukraine Ukraine Market Daily. March 16, 2009
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Financial Markets Snapshot: FX market remained relatively stable
Credit Europe Bank CREDIT EUROPE WEEKLY. CRISIS TIME. 16.03.2009
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